Will the TTP win the elections?
Will the candidates of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Awami National Party (ANP) need to arrange for their own militias to protect themselves against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) threat? With a second bomb attack on an MQM election office in Karachi that claimed the life of six people, it appears that the TTP has assumed the right to debar any party it dislikes from the elections at will. The trouble is that while the PPP, MQM and ANP continue to be on the attack, other mainstream parties such the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) have shied away from coming to their defence – with the PTI even forcefully denying any sense that the Ahmaddiya community would vote for it – purportedly in fear that it would be the next to be targeted.
Observers however suggest a more sinister reason behind it: the PML-N and PTI see no better opportunity to come into the corridors of power, with the three other mainstream parties on retreat. The PPP, whose campaign office in Noshki, Balochistan was recently targeted, is particularly reeling, with its chairperson Bilawal Bhutto, being scared into going to Dubai and left to releasing video messages. It is not a normal election at any stretch, with at least three mainstream parties unable to conduct regular election activities. While the PPP’s senior leadership, including Makhdoom Amin Fahim and former prime ministers’ Yousuf Raza Gilani and Raja Pervez Ashraf will now lead the campaign, and President Zardari had to chair a party meeting on Thursday, it appears like the PPP is going to run this election like a headless chicken – perhaps for maintaining pressure on the TTP at a time when the PML-N, the PTI and the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) towed the negotiated line. The other side of the picture is that the Sharif brothers and Imran Khan are all addressing public gatherings with freedom.
The third side of the picture is that the violence has meant that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and Supreme Court (SC) now appear hostage to mainstream religious parties. “How can the CEC stop political parties and candidates from seeking votes in the name of religion in a country which has been created in the name of Islam?,” the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl secretary general has questioned as the ECP withdrew its earlier orders to ban the use of religion in campaigning. It is a worrying sign, as under siege by militants, the ECP has given in to religious parties. At the other end, the JI chief Munawar Hasan has clearly stated that ‘secular’ parties should be disbarred from contesting the elections. Increasingly it appears like Pakistan is entering elections at gunpoint, but this is to the benefit of some actors in the political arena, who wish for temporary power. Little do they know that if there is no unity against the TTP now, they will be the next targets.
