Left without patrons, religious parties expected to perform poorly
Would the plethora of religious parties that claim a stake in Pakistan be able to regain the space ceded for various reasons in the 2008 general elections? is the question that is on peoples lips. The leaders of various religious parties have been seen in negotiations with political party leaders, including the Sunni Ittehad with the Pakistan People’s Party, the Jamaat-i-Islami with the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) and more recently with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Huffing and puffing with bloated egos, religious parties have found themselves on the wee end of the negotiating table, with none of the mainstream parties giving much wind to the electoral alliance offers. Religious parties are perhaps the demon of last choice for mainstream political parties: changing positions and alliances at will – or where the best offer is. Religious parties have for a long time been accused of piggy riding on the back of military dictators – and claiming mainstream credentials once the helping hand of the establishment is missing.
This is most visible in the JI’s failed attempt to take the upper hand in negotiations with mainstream parties, including the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). After the PTI refused a purported 50:50 seat sharing formula offered by the JI, the PML-N has also rejected the JI position that it wanted support on 18 NA constituencies, including those where its stalwarts Liaqat Baloch and Fareed Paracha were contesting. The demand was reduced to 8 NA seats and 25 PA seats, but with such a weakened position, the PML-N thought it more prudent to let the so-called advantage to be gained with an ‘understanding’ with the JI be forgiven and forgotten – at least for now. The religious vote itself has been divided this term, with each religious party playing to different galleries. With the so-called unity of the establishment-backed Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC) nowhere to be seen, the SI, the Jamaat-e-Ulema-i-Islam-Sami ul Haq (JUI-S) and Ahle Sunnat Waljammat (ASWJ) are pursuing their own strategies. To its credit, the JUI-Fazli has changed some of the perimeters of the role of religious parties, choosing not to join the DPC, and managing to hold two large rallies in Lahore and Karachi. However, it is not expected to reap fruit in any province other than Khyber Pakthunkhwa (KP).
Remember the year 2002. The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a conglomeration of religious parties, formed government in the two provinces of Balochistan and the then North Western Frontier Province (NWFP). To those watching the politics of Pakistan, it was the rebirth of the so-named Military-Mullah Alliance (MMA). This was the military establishment’s way of gaining legitimacy, but in return the credibility of the religious right fell, resulting in the poor results of the 2008 general elections. Having failed in wooing genuine electables to support it, the JI chief Munawar Hasan has begun to claim that “previously elected electables need to be defeated.” The statement is to be taken as more of an admission that religious parties shall have lesser sway, than they have verve in the next general elections.