Punjab’s violence-free elections

Being a safe havens for militants lacking high-profile targets has saved province

The MQM leadership has asked why Punjab alone is having violence-free electioneering while the other three provinces are facing the wrath of terrorists. What is being suggested is that this is a part of some sort of conspiracy against the MQM. Since few in other provinces would otherwise grieve over MQM’s bad performance in elections under an independent EC, the party has included two more provinces in the list of the targets of conspiracy to gain sympathy.

In fact if the conspiracy element is removed, none can have beef with the statement that Punjab remains by and large violence-free while KP, Balochistan and Karachi and Hyderabad are high on the list of the terrorists.

There is far lesser terrorist activity in Punjab because most of the high profile targets the TTP is looking for are outside the province. Of the three parties declared secular and thus game for the terrorists, the ANP and MQM have little electoral presence in Punjab.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa remains as ever the stronghold of the ANP while the party is also a significant player in Balochistan. It is contesting on 33 National Assembly (NA) and 81 Provincial Assembly (PA) seats in KP-cum-Tribal Areas. In Balochistan, it is fighting on 7 NA and 29 PA seats. The party has consistently opposed militancy as throughout its history and has practiced the policy of non-violence preached by Bacha Khan. It has faced the major brunt of the terrorist offensive in the two provinces with exemplary courage and fortitude. A number of its candidates have fallen victim to deadly terrorist blasts and hardly a day passes without an attack on a party rally. Despite this the party has shown no self pity. The ANP chief Asfandyar Wali insists that any postponement of the elections would have catastrophic consequences.

The ANP is the weakest in Punjab as it has never won a seat here since 1988. It is contesting only on 10 NA and 13 PA seats in the province. The TTP is after easier targets i.e. in the KP districts adjoining the tribal areas or Balochistan districts along the Durand Line where militants can cross over from Afghanistan to launch attacks. It is less likely to target low profile ANP candidates in distant Punjab.

The MQM remains a paper organisation in Punjab, KP and Balochistan. The announcement of candidates from these provinces is an exercise in smoke and mirrors aimed at creating a false perception that the MQM is an all Pakistan party. As few serious people are willing to contest on its ticket in Punjab, its list of nominees mostly comprise ghost candidates. In 2008, it announced 39 NA candidates from Punjab. It turned out to be a sheer joke. Not a single one could get second, third or even fourth position. The overall vote percentage of the MQM, with kite as election symbol, was the lowest in the province

This time the joke has gone too far. The MQM is “contesting” on 130 NA seats in Punjab and 258 PA seats. There are 10 districts at least whose names the “candidates” have mis-spelt on the official party website! Would genuine local candidates would ever do that? The terrorists would prefer high value targets in Karchi and Hyderabad rather than dummies in Punjab.

The PPP alone has a major presence in Punjab. It has however shunned big gatherings and has confined itself largely to either small constituency level meetings or door-to-door canvassing.

Punjab may not remain terror-free once the electioneering reaches climax. The local elite habitual of free use of muscle power is likely to test the ability of the ECP and the caretaker set up. Terrorists may also decide to launch attacks on some of the more exposed PPP candidates

There is also a second reason behind the lull in terrorist activity in Punjab. While the law and order situation in Punjab was in no way enviable under the PML-N, the province remained much more peaceful than Karachi. The rivalries between the ruling parties comprising PPP, MQM and ANP led to a killing spree in Karachi that continued non stop on for five long years. Each one of the three partners accused the other of being lawlessness, patronising the extortion mafia and groups of land grabbers. Instead of working as a team, mutual recrimination characeterised the alliance. The ANP and PPP accused the MQM of patronizing the killer gangs while the MQM announced that the People’s Amn Committee supported by the PPP was the mother of all evils.

As the SC was to discover subsequently the entire police service and administration had been politicised. Notorious killers were released by Home Department under pressure from one or other ruling party on parole who then disappeared in thin air only to continue their gory mission from the shadows. As a judge commenting on MQM Sen. Nasrim Jaleel’s petition asking the SC to restore peace in Karachi remarked early this month, “Members of the assembly who relished power for 20 years are now writing to the court. But they did nothing on their own. The caretaker set up has also been installed with their consultation.” Another observed, “They have remained allies of the government, why have they not done anything?”

There is however a third reason behind the suspension of terrorist activity in Punjab. The PML-N leadership has allowed major militant networks to set up headquarters in Punjab where their leadership moves around freely. It is not without reason that Hafiz Saeed, chief of JuD which is a reincarnation of the banned LeT, is free to address meetings despite the bounty announced by the US on his head. Similarly, Malik Ishaque of LeJ is safely stationed in the provincial capital.

This has raised the question if there is a give and take between the PMLN leadership and the terrorist networks. After all it is not without a reason that the TTP had suggested to make the PML-N, along with two religious parties, an a guarantor for peace. While the mainstream Sunni population, the law enforcement agencies and government installations have been safe from the terrorists, they have attacked Ahmadis, Shias and Christians with a vengeance as the government failed to provide minorities adequate shelter. There have been allegations that networks enjoying freedom in Punjab launch attacks in other provinces. It is highly dangerous to harbor groups like LeJ who conduct attacks on Hazara community in Balochistan, only to have peace in PML-N ruled Punjab. This raises a serious question about the future. Suppose the PML-N came to power in the country will it, for the sake of peace in the country, harbour and allow these networks to use Pakistan’s territory as a spring board for attack on neighbouring countries?

The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.