Election Diary: With the PTI factor, too close to call

It is not just true about Lahore but elsewhere in the Punjab too, the final outcome – who is going to win, and who is going to lose – is awfully difficult to predict.

A certain measure of uncertainty is an intrinsic part of the elections, yet in the previous elections in so many constituencies one used to get the feel of the candidate who was ahead of the pack.  And also could safely estimate the number of seats any of the two major contestants were going to win. Not this time around, for almost in every constituency it is not just a three-way contest, but with other factors thrown in it has become an intriguing, too close to call election constituency after constituency.

Even the all-powerful Establishment, said a well informed source, has little clue about how the chips are going to fall.

In public and in private, the PML-N leaders display an air of confidence and certainty. They actually seem quite cocky about their chances, and brag about being on the home run – ‘our turn’, they claim. Only the other day Khawaja Saad Rafique, dishing out his analysis was of the view that real contest in the city was on just a few seats. On others, he held forth, the PPP and PTI were no match to the ‘N’.  Even so, he was kind enough to ‘grant’ one seat to the PPP, and here too he promised a close contest.

Knowing Lahore’s constituency politics as intimately as the back of their hand, some analysts foresee the PPP going first past the post in three to four constituencies. In the rest, they see the PTI and the PML-N slugfest.

Khawaja Saad Rafique’s bluster notwithstanding, deep down the Sharifs too are feeling the heat and doing everything in their power to turn things around. There is this palpable sense of apprehension around them , though there is no shortage of people who think that they are through at least up to the extent of Punjab.

Amid this air of uncertainty, one thing though is certain: the PTI is making waves. Whatever the PML- N ranks may say about its prospects, the PTI is now a force to reckon with, making its presence felt on the ground.

The PTI mantra of ‘Change’ is definitely gaining currency. And one can note a growing goodwill for PTI amongst the youth, women and even working classes. But the main question: how much of this goodwill gets translated into electoral success?

The PTI’s dramatic rise as a potent third force has disturbed the conventional calculations, and political analysts are not really certain by how much Imran Khan and the PTI are going to dent the PML-N and the PPP? These are only guesstimates at the moment, but for the PML-N particularly, the setback could be a sizeable one.