Constituency Analysis – Kohat Division
The political atmosphere of the Kohat division is strikingly different from that of Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan (DIK) due to internal conflict within the ranks of a few political parties. Not a single political force can presently claim to be holding a strong position in all the three Kohat districts, while political observers are certain that a hung parliament at the provincial level is a real possibility.
The ANP had won two out of three NA seats in 2008 general elections while one went to the JUI-F. However, the ANP had failed in securing a single provincial assembly seat out of seven. Afterwards the ANP leadership succeeded in mustering the support of two independent candidates to stabilize their position. The JUI-F had won three seats after merging into the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) while one went to the PPP- Sherpao, recently renamed as Qaumi Watan Party (QWP). One independent candidate, who later joined the PPP, was also given an attractive ministerial slot in the previous government.
Ironically, since March 2008 up till March 2013, two independent candidates who were given cabinet position for five years have now ditched the ANP. One of them belonged to Karak and the other to Kohat; presently both are again in the fray as independents.
The JUI-F has been extensively dealing with internal revolts and opposition in its Karak stronghold from where it had won one NA and one PA seat apiece. Former JUI-F MPA Malik Qasim is contesting as independent after the party ticket went to Ayub Khattak. Son of late PML leader Yousaf Khattak, Ayub Khattak is a cousin of the Saifullahs from Lakki Marwat. The JUI-F has also fielded another Khattak, Javed, on the other PA constituency. In addition, the party also replaced former MNA Mufti Ajmal with Mufti Sardar on NA seat, thus inviting rifts and revolts to negatively influence party ranks.
And it is in Kohat that the JUI-F had fielded billionaires on both NA and PA seats by ignoring the party’s diehard and ideological stalwarts. At Hangu, the JUI-F nominated two of its old guns on the NA and PA seats, but also awarded a ticket to former MPA, who contested the 2002 general elections under the banner of ANP and in 2008 general election remained attached to now defunct PPP-S.
A cursory glance at the situation reflects that the JUI-F curse seems to have affected other political parties as well, including the PTI and the ANP, with both these parties facing strife in Kohat and Karak. Former Intelligence Bureau (IB) Director General Masood Sharif Khattak, along with several other notables recently resigned from the PTI, and were now contesting as independents are challenging the PTI candidates.
The ongoing internal feuds notwithstanding, the JUI-F was still a strong force and its candidates have confidently challenged their counterparts from the PML-N on all three constituencies in Karak. The overconfidence of some candidates could be gauged from the fact that former minister Mian Nisar Gul was already being congratulated for completing a hat-trick by winning the PA constituency.
Hangu has been termed as the most sensitive due to the presence of thousands of foreign and local militants in the adjacent tribal agencies of Aurakzai and North Waziristan, while its sectarian balance is also one of the most fragile in the region. Most of the recent terrorist activities in KPK either emanated or took place here, while this also remains an important corridor for three tribal agencies that open into the settled areas. Though in the recent past, ANP and JUI-F have remained strong rivals in this district, this time round the ANP seems better positioned as other religious groups like JUI-S and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) were also splitting the religious vote. The ANP candidate Pir Haider Ali Shah seemed to be leading the pack, while influential Senator Nabi Bangash’s son Irshad Nabi and former chief justice Peshawar High Court Justice (Retd) Ibne Ali was also contesting from the important constituencies.
The PPP meanwhile has maintained a good position in Kohat after bypassing all other parties and seems to have strengthened its position after its leadership succeeded in mustering support of former MNA Dilawar Shah and Syed Qalb-e Hassan. Dilawar has also got a PPP ticket for his brother. The PML-N’s strongman Malik Asad, previously the district nazim, is in contest with Dilawar. The ANP’s NA ticket has gone to its former MNA, Khurshid Begum. The independent group candidates headed by former provincial minister Amjad Afridi was showing a favourable tilt towards the PML-N.
The trends being witnessed among the religious minded electorate in Hangu, Kohat and Karak districts showed division of loyalties between three parties. Both factions of the JUI-F and JI have put up their candidates in all constituencies across Kohat Division, while some JUI-F dissidents would also be contesting as independent candidates. With an eye on taking advantage of divisions within the religious, the PML-N, PPP, PTI and the ANP are keeping a close watch on the situation.
