How much can it affect the elections in the city?
Pashtun votes in Karachi have been influenced by political trends and tendencies at the national level. They have never acted as a homogenous ethnic group at the electoral front, nor has their number in the city been materialised into support for the Pashtun nationalist party ANP. Pashtun localities are known for their diverse political support base, as one can see flags, graffiti and offices of almost all the political and religious parties there, busy in their activities.
Even on the constituencies with higher number of Pashtun votes, they normally go with other ethnic groups like Punjabis, Hindko speakers and the Balochs, to vote for Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) or various factions of Muslim League, who have managed to win in some cases or lost it to the MQM due to a split in votes among contestants. In any case, PPP and PML-N still have higher number of votes than the ANP or religio-political parties, like Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) or Jamat Islami (JI).
During ethnic riots in the late eighties, the ANP refrained from degenerating to the politics of ethnic rifts and attempted to ease the tensions by joining hands with the MQM while the situation was exploited by a new pressure group, Punjabi Pashtun Ittehad (PPI), riding the anti-MQM sentiments among Punjabis, Pashtuns and Hindko speakers. Factions of PPI later merged with the PPP and PML-N.
During the nineties, when Nawaz Sharif emerged as a formidable rival to the PPP leadership after his ’93 stint with President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, his candidate Mian Ejaz Shafi surprised everyone with a win from a constituency previously won by PPP. It happened once again in 1997, when the infamous Nasirullah Babar contested on PPP ticket from the same consitutency and was defeated by Mian Ejaz Shafi on PML-N ticket.
In 2000, when former Army Chief and President Pervez Musharraf introduced local government system, and MQM had boycotted the first elections, Jamat-e-Islami won most of the Town Nazim slots and city Mayorship, still Baldia and SITE Towns were won on by the ANP.
In 2002 general elections, protests and demonstrations against the US led war on terror and internal requirements of the military government led to the alliance of religio-political parties Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The tremendous hype around the first ever broad based and exclusively religious alliance charged the political environment. The absence of leaderships of mainstream political parties and a lot of maneuvering on the part of the military government led to MMA’s rule in two provinces as well as victories in a few constituencies from Karachi.
The situation was alarming for the ANP, which had failed to sustain the electoral gains of the first local bodies elections in the second term due to MQM’s presence and a split in vote with the JUI-F and JI. Perturbed at ceding the electoral space to religious parties, the ANP supported Abid Ali Umang, a candidate of MQM running for NA-240, in the by-elections against MMA’s candidate Qari Usman.
When the ANP Sindh’s leadership was taken over by Shahi Syed, he employed a proactive strategy of addressing the political and economic woes of the Pashtun populace, the issues faced by the people in the transport business, mediating in disputes of land and properties illegally acquired and building the party around his own personality cult, trying to replicate what the MQM had done in the last three decades.
All of a sudden, billboards and hoardings of ANP slogans appeared at major crosses and corners of Pashtun localities with the portraits of Shahi Syed and local party officials at the forefront while pictures of Ghaffar Khan, Wali Khan and Asfandyar Khan in the background.
Shahi Syed consolidated his grip with the wave of sympathy in the aftermath of the tragic events of May 12 and chose to ride the anti-MQM sentiments among the Pashtuns. He started using harsh words against the MQM and empowered lower cadres of the party to cope with the issues rising from the thana-kachehri culture. He also successfully negotiated with JUI and PPP for seat adjustments and got two comparatively secure provincial constituencies of PS-93 and PS-128 for those with tough competition with the MQM. The strategy has worked out, and Shahi Syed’s party has managed to win two provincial constituencies, with Syed becoming a Senator himself.
But the success came with its share of drawbacks. The ethnic tensions have consumed thousands of innocent lives and hundreds of political workers. Lower cadres of ANP have employed almost all the tactics familiar in Karachi politics. Performance of their parliamentarians is below the expectations; it can be gauged with the ANP’s decision of not giving ticket to the ex-Nazim SITE Town and ex-Minister for Labour Ameer Nawab from PS-93 for the second time. The threats of Taliban attacks is a major hurdle for the ANP and PPP in campaigning for the elections, while keeping the impact of Pashtun votes in mind, all the major parties PPP, PML-N, JUI-F, JI and even the MQM have decided to field Pashtun candidates from many constituencies.
In the last decade, the demography of the city has been changed with migrations from the areas affected by October 2005 earthquake, influx of IDPs from Pashtun regions and migrations from the same areas for economic opportunitie. Pashtuns have become the second largest ethnic group in Karachi. As per Arif Hasan, their number has increased from 16 percent to nearly 25 percent. These changing numbers will have their impact on the electoral process as well.
With the tribal basis of Pashtun populace on one hands and diverse political affiliations on the other, it seems their influence at the ballot boxes will be diluted due to a split of votes among various political parties running for the same constituencies. This could benefit MQM for their unified support base, provided they make smart choices in fielding suitable candidates for these localities.
Ali Arqam is a journalist and researcher based in Karachi. He can be contacted at aliarqam@hotmail.com, and interacted on Twitter at @aliarqam