The main contenders

A look at the prospects of PPP, PML-N and PTI in the coming elections

The PPP, PML-N and PTI are the three main contenders on the national level. Not long ago each one of them was claiming that it would sweep the votes. Within a few weeks, ground realities have started to assert themselves. Pep talk has gone out of use.

The present elections are different from what they used to be in the past. The presence of a neutral Election Commission, a consensus caretaker setup and a vigilant and intrusive Supreme Court has deprived the parties from some of the conventional advantages they possessed against rivals. The parties in the PPP-led alliance at the centre, and the PML-N which ruled Punjab, can no more depend on their blue boys in bureaucracy. The wholesale transfers in Punjab have led to a similar though not as comprehensive measure in Sindh.

In the case of PPP, ANP and MQM, the access to the voters has been hampered on account of the threats extended by the TTP. The public has been told by Ehsanullah Ehsan to stay away from gatherings of the three parties. Thus the pitch is already queered for them.

The PPP’s strength lies in its oragisation in all the provinces of the country. The party also has its jiyalas who despite their dwindling numbers remain committed to it. How many of them will come out to vote after the party’s abysmal performance remains to be seen.

The biggest problem for the PPP is that it is a leaderless party now. Bilawal Zardari Bhutto is seen nowhere in the election fray. What is more he is yet to learn how to address political rallies. He cannot speak Urdu fluently and knows no Sindhi. The party has decided not to risk his life at any coast, elections or no elections. After Zardari’s resignation from the office of the party Co-Chairman, Faryal Talpur has practically taken over as the chairperson of the party. In a party built around Bhutto family cult she commands neither the respect of the party leaders nor the trust of its workers. For those outside Sindh she remains a nonentity.

Sindh still remains the PPP’s stronghold from where it is expected to bag the largest number of seats. It is doubtful however if it will win as many constituencies as it did in 2008 when it rode to power over the sympathy wave generated by Benazir’s tragic assassination. The province was perhaps the most badly governed one after Balochistan with widespread corruption, criminal neglect of the victims of floods and rains and target killings and lawlessness in Karachi almost condoned by the ruling alliance. A united front of 10 parties led by PML-F chief Pir Pagara has fielded 23 candidates for the National Assembly and 51 for Sindh Assembly. In view of the bad performance of the PPP, a safe guess is that the opposition will gain many more seats this time than in 2008.

None of the PPP’s erstwhile allies has shown inclination to reach an electoral understanding with it, with the exception of PML-Q. The PPP-PML-Q alliance is based on the hope that it would bring the coalition all the votes that were cast for the two parties in 2008 when they contested against each other. The alliance might help in a handful of constituencies in Punjab but keeping in view the deep seated antipathy among the workers of the two parties, it cannot work miracles. In the last bye-elections in Punjab, the joint panel of the two in fact ended up in unmitigated disaster followed by mutual recriminations.

The PPP refused to give Hazara a provincial status. It would thus find it difficult to make headway in the division. In the rest of KP, the PPP’s capacity to hold meetings and reach out to the voters would depend on how effectively the caretakers are able to tackle the terrorist threat. In Balochistan, it will be required to work under the same limitation.

The PML-N leadership has been active, holding rallies in Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. A number of PML-Q leaders in KP have also joined it. In this way it is better off than the PPP. It has, however, problems that it might find difficult to surmount.

In Punjab, which is its base, the PML-N suffers from the incumbency factor. Despite the media blitz about the distribution of laptop computers, construction of the Lahore Bus Transit System etc, there are complaints that the government neglected the rest of the province, wasted funds in politically motivated but unsustainable ventures like Sasti Roti scheme. It took the Punjab government years to settle the issue with the young doctors. Scores of people died of dengue fever and many more on account of defective heart medicines. There were also complaints of people having been killed in staged police encounters. The over-centralised style of governance with the chief minister directly controlling a number of ministries has been widely criticised for inefficiency.

Another factor which could be highly negative for the PML-N is the rise of Imran Khan in Punjab. The PTI chief is focused on exposing the performance of the PML-N. He has already held two big rallies in Lahore and smaller gathering in a number of cities in Punjab. Imran is likely to make inroads in the PML-N vote bank across the province. In straight tripartite fights, this could help the PPP.

The PML-N is, however, confident of winning Punjab with a crushing majority. It has brokered agreements in Sindh and Balochistan and some of the bigwigs from other parties have joined it in KP. Unless the PTI manages to spring a surprise, of which there is little chance now, the PML-N has the potential to emerge as the single largest party in a hung parliament.

The PTI had entered the political arena as a dark horse in 2011. Imran Khan spent most of the time subsequently in organising the party and holding intra-party elections. The way the exercise was conducted was widely acclaimed but a year and a half was consumed by the activity. The elections led to rifts in the party from which it is recovering. It has meanwhile lost the momentum it had gained in 2011 and early 2012. With elections due in less than a month, the party has to race against time to build up its campaign. The PTI enjoys a fairly good position in KP and Punjab but is weak in Sindh, the second largest province.

It seems the party has reconciled to sit in the opposition. What remains to be seen is if it takes the second position or concedes it to the PPP, thus assuming the third.

 The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.