The interim circus

We are effectively in the interim to the holding of the national elections on May 11. All the transitional governments have been installed at the centre and in the provinces, albeit without cabinets except in the KPK. Understandably, from now on, things will move swiftly and smoothly till new governments are installed to manage the country’s fate for the next five years. But, is the exercise going to achieve the quintessential objectives of a genuine transition?

This would depend on a number of ifs and buts. Are the governments that have been installed to oversee the transition genuinely neutral and committed to the task of holding free, impartial and transparent elections? Is the much-touted application of articles 62 and 63 of the constitution going to be uncompromising and across-the-board? Will those guilty of various transgressions during the course of their sojourn in the corridors of power, most notably the corrupt involved in mega scams, the fake degree-holders, the tax-evaders and the dual-nationality holders, be kept out of the election process? Are only the “sagacious, the righteous, the non-profligate, the honest and the ameen” going to find their way to the parliament? These are just some of the thoughts that occur in an environment that has been grossly vitiated by an endeavour to perpetuate the interests of the contending parties in power encompassing the manner of induction of the interim set-ups and the unremitting pressure being wielded on the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to overlook many a flaw that are perceived as detrimental to their inherent political interests.

There is far too much expected of the ECP which has neither the capacity nor the power to force things the way it may desire. This is so because, in addition to its own lop-sided constitution, it is dependent on the services and cooperation of so many other institutions in conducting the elections, most notably NADRA, the civil administration, the judiciary, the military and the intelligence agencies. Will these institutions be as transparent and effective as the ECP may desire, or will people manning these institutions have their own agendas dictated by their political mentors to whom they owe their allegiance? And, quite simply, what possible results can be expected of elections handled by supposedly neutral caretaker chief-executives who have to deal with administrations installed by the predecessor political governments with well-defined and self-projecting interests and objectives?

Let’s look at it from another angle. While the political governments in the centre and the provinces may have their conflicting interests, all of them also have a collective interest: to resist and defy the prospect of change. This is so because if this change actually occurs, it would effectively eliminate any place and relevance for the traditional political mafias that have dominated the shape of things in the past. Doesn’t it, therefore, follow that all these forces, individually and collectively, would use their seen and unseen powers and leverages to block the path of change? And if that be so, does one smell the prospect of violence to overshadow the process of elections?

There is also the element of the militants spoiling the party for the contenders to power. There are trouble-spots right across Balochistan, Karachi, South Punjab and KPK where elections are either not going to be held, or these will be dominated by violence and irregularities. Smitten by fresh de-limitation of some constituencies in Karachi, the MQM will have to go into double-drive in its heartland of influence to preserve what it considers its ‘rightful’ share– most of which has been secured by installing an environment of fear and by indulging in registering and polling ‘ghost’ votes. Since, of late, other contenders have also gained influence in the constituencies hitherto dominated by the MQM who will be going all-out to translate their newly-gained footholds into seats in the legislatures, the prospect of violence looms large.

Balochistan is a different ball-game altogether. The coming of Nawab Akhtar Mengal and his declaration of intent to participate in the electoral process is a good omen. But, such is not the case with many other nationalist forces that believe that participation in elections does not present a solution to their simmering problems. Cognisance must also be taken of the reality that the presence of the ECP is limited to Quetta alone which is not sufficient to conduct the election process in the entire province. Even the installation of a Baloch person as the interim prime minister to oversee the elections in the country has not doused their concerns and grievances.

So, what do we see coming in shape of the national elections? Will it be a vast potpourri of converging and conflicting interests battling it out initially, but ultimately cooperating to pave the way for the re-emergence of the same old, corrupt and worn-out political mafias taking charge again? That appears to be the likeliest outcome because the battle is being fought on their turf with their implements overseen by umpires who enjoy their blessings and who have their absolute support and protection. But the likeliest may not always happen.

In spite of a plethora of adversities, the key to the outcome of the coming elections, more than any other single factor, may lie in the hands of a projected vast number of people – according to some estimates as many as equalling the total number may have cast their votes in any of the past elections – who would visit the polling stations for the first time principally in support of the drive for change in the country. Seen together with the ouster of over 35 million fake voters from the electoral rolls, they constitute the single most lethal component that can impact the fate of the coming elections. Will their exuberance and enthusiasm that have come forth in multiple ways in the past persevere through the next six weeks to the day of the elections? If that were to happen, it may define the transition of power being wrested from the traditional corrupt political mafias and passed on to the proponents of change in the country. An elevating thought to savour, but the dice appears heavily loaded against the prospect.