The portents are disturbing, indeed
While violence during the forthcoming election season would remain a countrywide threat, its recurrence in Balochistan will have far more grievous implications for the country than anywhere else. On the outcome of the elections will depend whether the province is to become a peaceful and prosperous part of the federation or is to be handed over to terrorists and separatists. What is needed is to ensure that all parties are provided a level playing field. This is not possible if candidates holding particular political views or religious inclinations continue to be targeted or if those responsible for the conduct of the polls are attacked.
The corrupt and inefficient coalition government which was clubbed together through political engineering in 2008 was disinclined to end the lawlessness that included kidnappings and killings. The government considered itself accountable only to its benefactors in the establishment rather than the people of Balochistan. The chief minister did not care to visit his constituency during his entire tenure. His colleagues were equally disinclined to look after the people’s welfare. It was in fact a matter of common knowledge that several MPAs were involved in acts of kidnapping for ransom. While the absentee chief minister lacked the ability to govern, lawlessness suited many of his colleagues who could continue their nefarious activities in a situation of the sort. None in the administration was moved even by the horrendous attacks on the Hazara community in January and February in each of which scores of innocent members of the Shias community were eliminated.
The portents one sees on the eve of the elections are disturbing, indeed. The law and order situation continues to be grim. Events over the last four weeks create apprehensions regarding the security of the candidates and their supporters. A district election commissioner was killed in Quetta. A group of armed men dressed in Frontier Corps uniform kidnapped Balochistan Assembly member belonging to the ANP in Pishin district. Ten persons were killed and 40 injured in Jaffarabad bomb blast. Senior journalist Mehmood Jan Afridi was shot dead by unidentified killers in Kalat town. In Turbat, another group of unidentified assailants shot four people and set their car on fire. Two Punjabis were killed in Gwadar.
The nationalist and secular parties are likely to be the chief target during the election campaign. It suits some of the political parties that were part of the ruling coalition to use the terrorists against the more popular candidates belonging to the ANP and the PKMAP. As usual, these parties would declare that secular and liberal views are against Islam, encouraging their allies among the terrorist to rid them of their competitors. In the Pushtun areas, the Pukhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, the ANP and the PPP would face threats from the TTP and its affiliates. The rabidly anti-Shia LeJ has been highly active in the province during the last five years, engaging in what amounts to the ethnic cleansing of the Hazara community. Being a part of the TTP which has vowed to attack the ANP, the PPP and the MQM, LeJ is likely to train its guns against the first two which are taking part in the elections from the Pushtun areas. The terrorists have over the years employed the strategic depth available to them in the adjoining Afghan provinces to launch attacks inside Balochistan.
In Baloch areas there has been no respite to forced disappearances, torture and dumping of dead bodies. Independent rights bodies like the HRCP have collected enough evidence to prove that the illegalities were initially conducted by the agencies. After the focus turning on them, they have partly handed over the task to hired gangs of killers, which continue the activity in the Baloch areas with impunity. The armed killers move about in vehicles with coloured glasses picking up or killing on spot the political activists belonging to mainstream nationalist parties. This is the sort of counter-productive activity that was undertaken in East Pakistan through Al Shams and Al Badar. This according to mainstream nationalists is the principal threat they face during the elections.
The mainstream nationalists are also threatened by the several ‘armies’ setup by separatist organisations with leaders signing death warrants of the opponent from the mountains or from foreign countries. A peaceful resolution of the Balochistan issue does not suit those bent upon secession. For them the mainstream nationalists pose a greater threat than the law enforcement agencies. Democracy, they believe, would co-opt popular Baloch and Pushtun politicians who would mould the public opinion in favour of a united federal Pakistan. Once a democratic mechanism is in place for a peaceful resolution of the problems of Balochistan, the pull for separation would be gone.
Whether the elections in Balochistan are peaceful or marred by malpractices and bloodshed will depend on whether the establishment is willing to provide a fair, even field to the nationalist and secular parties. The establishment decided in 2008 to bring peace in Balochistan through methods altogether alien to the constitution and law. For this it chose to have a thoroughly obedient administration. A lot of political engineering was undertaken to put in place a government willing to allow the brutalities on its own population. The new administration demanded a price for its cooperation. While voluntarily handing over to the agencies the right to rule the province as they pleased, they sought total freedom to pillage the resources of the state. The bargain was struck.
The five year long experience indicates a total failure of the arrangement thus made. There is no peace in the province. Alienation among the people of Balochistan has climaxed. Lawlessness has made the province ungovernable. There are more attacks on the law enforcement agencies than before. Pakistan is being castigated at world forums for its human rights record in Balochistan. Many in the province compare Balochistan with the Indian controlled Kashmir. With Akhtar Mengal reiterating his commitment to the constitution, democracy and federation in clear and unambiguous terms, it is no more possible to dismiss the nationalists as anti-Pakistan elements. There is a greater understanding of the plight of the people of Balochistan in the rest of the country. They are no more alone.
It goes to the credit of the nationalist parties both from the Pushtun and Baloch areas that undeterred by the double jeopardy they face they are still willing to give democracy a chance. It is now for the establishment to rectify the blunders it made in 2008 and many more since, and work hard to ensure peace and equal opportunity for all entities in the elections. The question is, will it?
The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.
