New factors make first democratic transition of power important
Gear up for the first democratic transition of power in Pakistan’s 66-year history. With the Pakistan Peoples Party-led coalition at the centre having managed to successfully persuade all provincial governments to dissolve together, May 11 is set to be the day all of Pakistan gets to vote. And in another first the people of the tribal areas will also get to elect their representatives. Another first is that these are expected to be the first elections where an independent Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) shall conduct a meaningful scrutiny of the nomination papers of candidates. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and National Database Registration Authority (NADRA) are expected to aid the process.
But if this was to be a time for unprecedented celebrations; it has been dampened by the impasse over selecting a caretaker setup and the short three-week campaign time candidates are expected to get. This does not take away from the fact that major political parties have been undertaking their campaigns for at least six months; with the parties in power doling out last minute development schemes and those out of power campaigning on the go.
The current polls will also show the strength of the rise of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf as a serious contender in national politics – and the true strength of the ‘youth factor’ it has been banking on and traditional parties trying to woo. More than 49.76 million voters, equal to 58 percent of the total voters, are 40 years old or younger, while 34 percent of total voters are aged less than 31 years old. These suggest that the preferences of younger voters will be key in deciding whether new faces will emerge or the same faces will don the assemblies after the polls.
The religious minorities vote has also emerged as a wildcard – and is expected to be the decisive factor in over 96 constituencies. With over 2.77 million non-Muslim voters in the country, winning candidates in 13 districts in Sindh and two districts in Punjab are expected to turn on the support of minorities.
The election turnout itself is expected to be better than previous elections. The expected interest of the youth in casting their vote and the independence of the ECP means that people have more faith that their vote will matter in the grand scheme of things. It is of interest to know that 3,844 senior citizens, over 100 years of age, have also registered themselves to cast votes. Punjab still continues to possess the country’s largest vote base, being host to 57.17 percent of the country’s voter base.
On May 11, 2013, 85 million voters shall get a chance to cast a vote to elect the representatives to the national and provincial assemblies. Each vote shall be decisive.
