As the next budget is just a quarter away, April-June, the economic observers are expecting the monthly trade deficit to further turndown in the remaining months of current fiscal year (FY13). They foresee the trade deficit to stand at around $ 15 billion during FY13. “The declining deficit is expected on account of better performance by exports as PKR depreciation against dollar is anticipated to reach 9% YoY by year-end thus making our local exports cheaper,” viewed Muniba Saeed of InvestCap Research. This, the analyst said, along with beginning of textile exports to EU on concessionary tariff from Pakistan as well as continuing exports of yarn and grey cloth to China was expected to fare well for exports. “On the imports side, we see decline in fertilizer, palm oil and oil exports to weigh down the import bill thus relieving pressure on the deficit,” she said. Giving a monthly account of the balance of trade, the analyst said as per data of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) the trade deficit in Feb-13 declined by a handsome 11% MoM to a level of $1.548 billion. Such positivity can be attributed to a 10% MoM step down in imports of Feb-13 to a level of $3.383 billion (down by $380 million) whereas the dip in exports of 9.29% MoM ($188mn lower) to $1.835 billion made such positivity less pronounced. Compared to Feb-2012, trade deficit showed a decline of 6.6% YoY in Feb-13, where imports fell by 2.3% YoY and exports lowered by 8.7% YoY. In 8MFY13, the analyst said, the balance of trade (commodities) stood at a deficit of $13.185 billion, a level 10% YoY lower compared to $ 14.660 billion in 8MFY12.
