Saudi Arabia has been funneling Croatian arms to Syrian opposition groups via Jordan, helping the so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA) and al qaeda linked jihadi groups score a string of tactical victories over the winter, even as international powers intensify efforts for a political solution to the two year civil war.
A report in the New York Times on Monday quoted “American and western officials” regarding Saudi efforts to “break the bloody stalemate that has allowed (Syrian) president Bashar al-Assad to cling to power”. The report came as US secretary of state John Kerry and Soviet foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met in Europe to agree on a political way out of the crisis that has taken more than 70,000 lives, according to UN figures. Just hours before the talks, Mr Lavrov criticised elements in the Syrian opposition for blocking negotiations by making unrealistic demands. And analysts now believe recent military gains, with the help of Saudi funded arms, are behind opposition intransigence.
Mr Kerry also hinted at a more active US participation in the proxy war should negotiations fail. “We are determined to change the calculation on the ground for president Assad”, he said after talks with British foreign secretary William Hague.
Usual Saudi way
Saudi Arabia, along with Qatar and Turkey, has been the staunchest opponent of the al-Assad regime that has ruled Damascus since 1970. Saudi petrodollars have been crucial in funding wahabi insurgencies since the time of the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan, when its intelligence agency partnered with Pakistani and American counterparts to raise the Afghan mujahideen.
In years following the Soviet withdrawal, these soldier-clerics became the founding fathers of al qaeda and the Taliban. The growing trend of anti-shia militancy in Pakistan is traced to groups nurtured under extremist wahabi indoctrination in Saudi funded medressas spread across the country.
Saudi opposition to the Assad regime stems from the latter’s close links to Iran’s shia government. And Riyadh, supported by GCC monarchies, especially Qatar, has leveraged the anti-regime uprising in Syria to expand its own influence in the region.
But Saudi influence comes with the spread of extremist, al qaeda like, Salafi tendencies, which in Syria’s case can be seen by the rising power of the Jabhat al-Nusra, or al-Nusra front.
Since opposition rebels have steadily gained ground – most potent among them being al-Nusra – Riyadh’s gestures have run in opposition to foreign powers trying to broker peace.
“A negotiated settlement in Syria is inconceivable”, said Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal last month, even as the war entered a prolonged stalemate and civilian casualties mounted.
The alleged Croatian arms transfer, which includes “a particular type of Yugoslav-made recoilless gun, as well as assault rifles, grenade launchers, machine guns, mortars and shoulder fired rockets” is supposed to be channeled only to secular groups in the opposition. But the report makes no mention of how such an arrangement can be achieved given the on ground situation in Syria.
It also suggests the move to arm certain groups is made in light of the growing clout of al-Nusra, but sidesteps any mention of where these militants are getting funding and arms from.
“Syria was among the world’s most secular societies”, a refugee said on condition of anonymity. “Al-Nusra is a world apart from everything the uprising stood for. Soon you will see a fight between the FSA and al qaeda when Assad falls”.
Rising influence
Already, the Syrian civil war has enabled al qaeda to spread its tentacles in a largely secular region.
“Lebanon has become an integral part of the plans of al-Nusra front”, ran a report in the influential Lebanese daily, Al-Akhbar. “Al-Qaeda’s fastest-growing offshoot is seeking to merge Lebanon’s extreme Islamist factions into a united front”.
Elsewhere, a detailed investigation into the recent assassination of leftist Tunisian opposition leader Chokri Belaid has revealed a Salafi plot to eliminate prominent secular blocs. The assassination resulted in the resignation of the prime minister and threw Tunisia, one of the initial flashpoints of the Arab spring, into its worst political crisis since a popular revolt unseated president Zine el Abidine ben Ali two years ago.
Growing unrest in the wake of the uprisings has led al qaeda cadres to relocate from the AfPak theatre of war to Arabia in large numbers.
The American drawdown and rising influence of the Afghan Taliban, with whom al qaeda has developed serious differences, has squeezed their space in Afghanistan, whereas military action in Pakistan’s tribal area, coupled with unrelenting drone strikes, has led them to flee from the area.
“Their presence now is only symbolic”, said Rasheed Safi, head of news at Radio Burraq. “For the moment the Arab frontier is far more attractive for them”.
The transfer is aided by large arms flows bankrolled by Saudi-led wahabi monarchies. And as foreign powers’ talks regarding further arming the Syrian opposition approach a final decision, al qaeda may well emerge as the biggest winner as it positions for a replay of its achievements in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.
