Doctrine on India remains unchanged
During the last two years a perception had gradually developed about a change in the military’s thinking vis-a-vis the relations with India. It now appears that more was being read into the signals emanating from the army than was justified. Gen Kayani’s remarks while visiting Siachin on April 18 last year praising “peaceful coexistence” with India as being vital for the welfare of both countries was taken by some as a sign of change in the traditional military mindset. In January this year a mention in the new army green book of the threat from internal militancy as the greatest security risk was interpreted as a paradigm shift in the army’s thinking. It was maintained that the army had admitted for the first time that the real threat is emanating internally and along the western borders and not from India – previously considered as enemy number one.
The perception was unrealistic. There is in fact no fundamental change in the military establishment’s thinking where Pak-India ties are concerned. India still remains an existential threat, though terrorism is no less. Normal relations could only be restored when there is some positive movement on resolving the thorny issues that include Kashmir, Siachen and the Sir Creek etc. If the signs from the army were meant to gauge whether its Indian counterparts were willing to show a reciprocal flexibility, the result must have been discouraging. The Indian army continued to be adamant on defence-related disputes. Finally it blew the incident of the beheading of an Indian soldier out of all proportion unmindful of the consequences for the ongoing peace talks which were stalled once again. A number of statements by Pakistan’s foreign minister and diplomats had led some to conclude that the notion of strategic depth had been abandoned. We find now that the doctrine is still intact. There can be no two opinions about Pakistan’s security concerns requiring a friendly Afghanistan after the departure of the US troops. The question is whether the aim is to be achieved through diplomatic means or with the help of security agencies and military pressure.
One understands that the APC’s initiative on talks with terrorism has the backing of the military. Hopefully any agreement brokered with the TTP would be strictly within the ambit of the constitution and writ of the Pakistan government. The political parties must not give undue concessions to seek guarantees of peace during the elections. The army’s support for timely elections should allay fears regarding interference from powerful circles in the first ever peaceful and orderly transfer of power to the next elected government. Whether it would put an end to the uncertainty is another matter. The past record of broken promises will take time to be completely erased from memory.
