The Group of 20 nations declared on Saturday there would be no currency war and deferred plans to set new debt-cutting targets, underlining broad concern about the fragile state of the world economy.
Japan’s expansive policies, which have driven down the yen, escaped direct criticism in a statement thrashed out in Moscow by policymakers from the G20, which spans developed and emerging markets and accounts for 90 percent of the world economy.
Analysts said the yen, which has dropped 20 percent as a result of aggressive monetary and fiscal policies to reflate the Japanese economy, may now continue to fall.
“The market will take the G20 statement as an approval for what it has been doing — selling of the yen,” said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London. “No censure of Japan means they will be off to the money printing presses.”
After late-night talks, finance ministers and central bankers agreed on wording closer than expected to a joint statement issued last Tuesday by the Group of Seven rich nations backing market-determined exchange rates.
A draft communiqué on Friday had steered clear of the G7’s call for economic policy not to be targeted at exchange rates. But the final version included a G20 commitment to refrain from competitive devaluations and stated monetary policy would be directed only at price stability and growth.
“The mood quite clearly early on was that we needed desperately to avoid protectionist measures … that mood permeated quite quickly,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty told reporters, adding that the wording of the G20 statement had been hardened up by the ministers.
As a result, it reflected a substantial, but not complete, endorsement of Tuesday’s proclamation by the G7 nations – the United States, Japan, Britain, Canada, France, Germany and Italy.
As with the G7 intervention, Tokyo said it gave it a green light to pursue its policies unchecked.
“I have explained that (Prime Minister Shinzo) Abe’s administration is doing its utmost to escape from deflation and we have gained a certain understanding,” Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters.
“We’re confident that if Japan revives its own economy that would certainly affect the world economy as well. We gained understanding on this point.”
Flaherty admitted it would be difficult to gauge if domestic policies were aimed at weakening currencies or not.
