Options for Qadri

The best of them: scoot back to Canada

That the Supreme Court is independent was acknowledged by Qadri himself, not once but several times. But that was before the court rejected his plea against the Election Commission. Despite a promise given as late as a day before the verdict to accept whatever it was, Qadri chose to fulminate against the apex court. This is a sure give away of his ill intent. Now there are questions about the course he is likely to take.

There are three options he can choose from.

Most people in this country would like to see Qadri’s back – the soonest the better. Gauging public sentiment and swallowing the perceived insults hurled at him by the SC and the all-too-free media, he could decide to call it quits and return to Canada. To many this would be the most desirable choice. From Canada, the TMQ leader can continue to travel from country to country delivering his sermons, setting up TMQ franchises and collecting donations.

Use of religion to mint money is currently a thriving business in the West. Terrorist organizations, cult leaders and mullahs of different denominations receive millions of dollars in funding from the Pakistani community settled in the US and the UK. There being a shortage of prayer leaders in the West, Muslim immigrants who worry about the hereafter have to order clerics from Pakistan. The shortage is due to the absence of seminaries in the West. Qadri is sure to hit a jackpot by setting up a chain of factories to produce prayer leaders. Despite all the scientific advancement many in the West still lean towards all types of faith healers, yogis, astrologers, crystal ball gazers and tarot card and tea leaf readers. This has in fact tuned into a multimillion dollar industry. With his claims that he can talk to the dead and speak to the birds, Qadri is admirably suited to become a major player in the business. Quite a few Pakistani practitioners of the spiritual arts have built fortunes by selling charms in the United Kingdom. Qadri with his good managerial skills can bring all these together into one big organization and open numerous franchises in the West.

The second option is to postpone his departure to Canada and enter into negotiations with political parties who eye the TMQ cadre as a potential political asset. These comprise a motley variety itching to turn the tables on the PML-N in the Punjab – including the PML-Q, MQM, TIP and PPP. The first two had unreservedly hailed his long march and expressed solidarity with him. A dual national who like Qadri is also Her Majesty’s subject, Altaf Hussain had gone overboard while praising Qadri’s programme, calling him a soul mate whose party was a perfect match for the MQM. The MQM had subsequently arranged a big gathering for the Canadian national in Karachi. The Choudhrys of Gujrat had similar praise for the cleric. An enthused Shujaat Hussain had declared, “We will support Qadri’s mission whether we remain in government or not.”

As Qadri is deadly opposed to the PML-N, the PPP also considers him a possible ally. This explains why a crowd of PPP ministers and their allies huddled together with Qadri in his bulletproof bunker in Islamabad. During the TMQ chief’s appearance in the Supreme Court, the Attorney General acted in a way that was more helpful to Qadri than to the apex court.

While hobnobbing with like-minded parties Qadri could continue to put up a show of force in the hope of achieving through mob pressure what he has failed to get through recourse to law. He has already announced protests in a number of cities, beginning with Gujranwala on Saturday ‘to ensure fair and free elections’. In the changed situation he could put up more demands.

This option however has a major drawback. Instead of being in the driving seat Qadri would have to play second fiddle to other leaders, something the self-appointed Sheikhul Islam’s ego would be likely be averse to. While cooperation with other parties would require his workers to make sacrifices the rewards would go to the partners contesting the elections.

Qadri also has a third but a more demanding course open to him. He could tear up his Canadian passport, revive his political party which has been defunct since he went abroad, and jump into the boxing ring. This he cannot do with his outlandish costume. He will have to discard his ‘imama’ and the posture it requires which is bound to be the first casualty in the no-holds-barred rigmarole of Pakistani politics. Reportedly this is what some of his workers who braved the winter in Islamabad under an open sky are advising him to do. Qadri can keep his family abroad hoping that his heir-apparent would look after his lucrative business in North America and Europe.

The TMQ chairman has access to unlimited funds. His long march was preceded by a billion rupee media blitz that stamped the oft-repeated image of the cleric on millions of viewers. He has oratorical skills surpassed by none of the current political leaders. To top it all he is a master of doublespeak.

Qadri remained however out of touch with situation on the ground. He failed to comprehend the sea change that has taken place in this country since he bade farewell to it. He didn’t know that the country has now a vibrant civil society which despite its weaknesses would stand in the way of any adventurer who tries to upset the system. Further that the army and the courts know this as well. The TMQ chief returned to Pakistan with the illusion that the military establishment and the judiciary wanted to get rid of the politicians and would support his attempts to upset the political system.

What encouraged Qadri to make a leap of faith was the enthusiastic reception given by the youth to Imran Khan. But Imran Khan is an altogether different entity. He may have his shortcomings, Imran has stayed in Pakistan all these years, and his patriotism and personal integrity has never been in any doubt. What is more he has served the country by setting up a first class cancer hospital and a fine university while Qadri hopped from one Western capital to another flaunting his Canadian passport unmindful of what was happening in Pakistan. He was nowhere to be seen when the catastrophic 2005 earthquake struck the country or when the 2010 rains and floods cut a vast swathe making thousands homeless. Qadri was also nowhere to be seen during the movement for the restoration of independent judiciary.

Surely not the hallmark of someone who cares for his people more than his cozy lifestyle in the West, and that is why he will remain such a hard-sell. It remains to be seen if Qadri is able to get rid of illusions and face reality.

The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.