Dealing with the Taliban

With time running out, are we resigned to our fate?

A rare consensus has been reached on the need for talks with the Taliban. The participants of the recent daylong conference on terrorism organised by the Awami National Party (ANP) included almost all major political and religious parties sans Imran Khan’s PTI and Jamaat-e-Islami.

Although the conference agreed on peace through dialogue it failed to suggest a roadmap to achieve this lofty goal. With many of the participants having a soft corner for the militants, some more strident than others, naturally only a modicum of consensus was possible.

But the very fact that such a conference was held at all – under the ageis of the ANP – in response to a conditional offer by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is commendable. Better late than never.

With lack of specifics the conference’s response to the TTP’s offer can only be termed as weak kneed. One of the guarantors suggested by the TTP, the Jamaat-e-Islami, did not even participate. Imran Khan also opted out. There was hardly any agreement on concrete proposals to start a dialogue with the Taliban.

Everyone knows that the present government has only a few weeks to go. Hence, unsurprisingly, any serious dialogue with the TTP can only be held post general elections when a new government with a fresh mandate is in place.

Nevertheless time is running out as the US is in a hurry to cut and run as the deadline of the so-called drawdown in 2014 approaches. Washington’s priorities in the region are fast changing. History could repeat itself in the post-US withdrawal scenario. Pakistan could be left on its own with burgeoning terrorism cutting through its entrails.

At this stage, there can hardly be a result-oriented discussion on the so-called TTP offer. The militants have refused to lie down their arms. How can a meaningful dialogue be held under the shadow of the gun?

The TTP refuses to back down from its demand to impose a sharia of their brand over the people of Pakistan. How can any government worth its salt hand over the country to such elements that do not owe any allegiance to constitutionalism nor subscribe to the Islam practised by a majority of Pakistanis?

And then there is the military – a major stakeholder in any war within or on the borders of Pakistan. The TTP has expressed its lack of confidence in the Army on the plea that it has reneged on past agreements. Hence it has sought guarantees from political figures namely Mian Nawaz Sharif and Syed Munawar Hassan.

While the civilians were mulling over the TTP offer, the military top brass met at the General Headquarters (GHQ) the same day to discuss the Afghan peace process in the backdrop of the TTP offer. Naturally for any agreement to fly it should have the top brass in the driving seat with its stamp of approval.

Naturally Nawaz Sharif cannot be a guarantor to a possible agreement between the military and the TTP. Possibly he might be enjoying some level of credibility with the militants. But so far as the military leadership is concerned, historically speaking, his relations have been uneasy if not actually troubled.

In such a scenario it will be difficult for any government to agree to the Taliban’s pre-conditions as a sine qua non for dialogue. For example, it is not possible to unconditionally release militants captured as a result of Herculean efforts by the military.

All the parties agree on the need for dialogue. However, for such dialogue to actually take place the Talban have to lay down their arms, renounce violence and declare their allegiance to the constitution of Pakistan.

This is not going to happen soon. The Taliban are on the rampage, their activities no longer confined to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) or the adjoining badlands. Nor is the ANP amongst the political parties their sole target.

Of late the militants have consolidated their presence in Karachi, declaring MQM amongst others as their targets. Certain areas in the largest metropolis of the country have been declared as ‘no go areas’ where the Taliban have imposed their own brand of sharia.

Naturally to bring TTP to the conference table and before that to make them agree to a ceasefire will not be possible unless they are weaker on the ground. Right now the shoe is on the other foot.

It is an elusive enemy with support base amongst the polity as well as important and significant swathes of the society. For example, Imran Khan apart from his strident opposition to drone attacks vociferously supports the idea of engaging the Taliban.

Still on his solo trip he refused to be part of the APC organised by the ANP. The Khan despite leading a secular party with its support base amongst the youth and the educated middle class has somehow emerged as a Taliban sympathiser.

But interestingly enough the Taliban still do not trust him. He was conspicuously excluded by the TTP from its list of guarantors for a possible agreement with the government.

Nevertheless Imran could play a positive role to evolve a broad based consensus on how to deal with the Taliban. Sooner or later PTI will also have to redefine its role in dealing with other political parties. The politicians Imran refuses to deal with might be ideal in his own assessment, but not necessarily worse than the likes of Sheikh Rashid and Allama Tahirul Qadri.

President Obama has already declared that for the US war in Afghanistan will be over by late 2014. However, he announced in his State of the Union address that there will be no let up on attacks on the militants’ hideouts. This means that the Pakistani military and whichever government is in power post elections, has their job cut out for them.

Time is running out but we still do not have our act together on how to deal with Taliban. Those who think that once the US withdraws from Afghanistan somehow the problem will go away by itself are living in a fool’s paradise.

It is going to hit us with much more ferocity once the US leaves. Much worse than when the US cut and ran the last time in Afghanistan. Are we resigned to our fate?

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today