Moves not so subtle

The prospects and pitfalls on way to change

Let’s try to enact the broad contours of prospects that are impacting the current political developments in the country.

People’s Party is desperate to stay in power as, failing that, it may see many of its leading lights including its co-chairperson land up in jail on account of involvement in mega scams.

PML-N has waited anxiously for almost five years for its ‘turn’ to ravage the country with its last two stints in power providing the lead. It is unwilling to forego the chance.

MQM is using all its muscle to hold on, even increase its fake ‘mandate’ by resisting efforts for delimitation of constituencies and registration of voters in Karachi. People willing to cooperate with the Election Commission staff are being threatened with dire consequences.

PML-Q is fast losing relevance at the hands of its more influential political adversaries as most of its stalwarts are deserting a sinking ship.

ANP has its goose cooked in the wake of its below-par performance and the alleged involvement of its leaders in numerous financial irregularities.

Confronted with shrinking space, the traditional religious parties including the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) will be fighting even more venomously to hold on to their slice of the constituency cake.

PML-F has somewhat expanded its base in Sindh and has also made headway in striking alliances with like-minded outfits elsewhere in the country.

All these parties constitute the traditional, status-quo mafia of the country. They are now being challenged by the drive for ‘change’ led by PTI’s Tsunami, Tahir-ul-Qadri’s long-march politics and the emergence of the nationalist forces in Sindh and Balochistan. The million-dollar question is: will the forces opposing the status-quo politics, individually or collectively, succeed in dismantling the strongholds of the traditional political mafias by playing on their wicket suited to their kind of game?

Conceded that the hold of these traditional forces may be waning because of their excessive involvement in corruption, the lack of delivery of their governments at the centre and in the provinces, their inability to provide succour and security to the people, the virtual disappearance of energy either because of paucity in supply or an abominable increase in the cost and an incessantly enhancing number of problems for the common people that are adversely impacting their chances for survival, but does it also follow that these mafias have also run out of tricks that they can play to keep the masses hostage in their criminal tentacles? And, what are these tricks that may still be available to them to continue their stranglehold?

The principal instrument that is still available to the stalwarts of these mafias is the ‘system’ that works by corruption and you-scratch-my-back-I’ll-scratch-yours mechanism. There has been no change there as none of the incumbent political mafias would allow that. This is their favourite wicket and they know how best to play on it. They know the bounce and they have perfected their armoury to extract maximum advantage from the turf and the prevalent conditions. The question is: do they also know their adversaries and will they be able to evade their bouncers and smother their googlies?

That brings us to evaluating the prospects of the stalwarts of ‘change’: a possible combination of the Tsunami, the long-marches and the nationalist forces of Sindh and Balochistan representing a quest for emancipation. In addition to their respective merits and strengths, will these forces be able to work in unison to achieve a cause that, apparently, is advantageous to them all? To begin with, it appeared that these forces were working at a tangent to one another, but there are indications that, after all, they may be able to build a commonality of objectives as part of their united struggle. The outstanding issues that need the convergence of all forces representing ‘change’ are the composition and functioning of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and the manner and method of the induction of the interim government that would be tasked with the objective of holding the national elections.

There should be little ambiguity regarding the intentions of the incumbent mafias to use both these instruments to their advantage. There have been indications that the ECP, after its initial salvo of bravado, is actually succumbing to the incessant pressure exerted by the status-quo forces as can be gauged from the statements of the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC). After vowing to uphold all injunctions of the Supreme Court, he backed off just a few days later on his commitment to carry out delimitations in Karachi. Even the voter registration exercise that is understandably underway in the city is being conducted without the help of the army as had been ordered by the SC which makes it brazenly counterproductive. The very composition of the ECP with four political appointments renders it impossible for the CEC to act as he may deem right. He has to curry the support of at least two of them in formulating and implementing decisions which is possible only in the event when there is a conflict of interest between the two major political forces – the one marshalling the government and the other controlling the opposition. As things stand today, there is no such conflict and there will not be because these mafias are united in the cause of keeping the corrupt ‘system’ going.

Therefore, can the Tsunamis, the long-marches and the nationalist forces achieve the minimum desirable objectives by working individually, or is there a need for them to close ranks and put together a charter of demands with an operational mechanism to get to the goal? The meeting between the PTI and Tahir-ul-Qadri could be a starting point, but there is a need for inducting all forces standing for ‘change’ into their ranks to launch a joint and concerted struggle for extricating this country from the clutches of the criminal mafias that have ruled it in one garb or the other. In the event this does not happen, the dream of ‘change’ will quickly disintegrate thus further perpetuating the evil hold of the corrupt and the cunning.

The writer is a political analyst. He can be reached at [email protected]