It’ll take time for the frost to thaw
Internally, Pakistan is in a state of constant turmoil. Rampant terrorist attacks, political assassinations and target killings have now become the norm rather than the exception.
Although Allama Tahirul Qadri’s circus in Islamabad has ended after the cleric was given a face saver by the government, the damage has been done.
Ostensibly the democratic system and Asif Ali Zardari are the winners in the first round. But a most dangerous precedent has been set: any well-financed rabble-rouser with the help of his sizable followers in tow can invade the federal capital, making an elected government virtually hostage to his amorphous demands.
While the government was running around dealing with the appended consequences of the long march, an external crisis on its eastern borders erupted from nowhere, leading to the extent that Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar had to bitterly complain about the hostility emanating from across the border.
Thankfully, Pakistan and Indian Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) have mutually decided to reduce tensions on the Jammu and Kashmir Line of Control (LoC). But it will take a while to reset India-Pakistan relations to the level before the recent skirmishes in Kashmir.
The uneasy peace that prevailed since the 2003 ceasefire agreement was rudely shattered earlier in the month when the Indian forces infiltrated Pakistani territory, killing one soldier and injuring another. In retaliation, Pakistani soldiers crossed the LoC killing two Indian soldiers.
According to the Indian officials, one of the soldiers was beheaded and mutilated by the Pakistani forces, a charge vociferously denied by Islamabad. Whatever the truth, there has been outrage in India.
In abundance in both sides of the divide, the hawks have prevailed over the doves. The Indian army chief has threatened to retaliate “at the time and place of its choosing” – a chilling word-for-word replication of Lal Bahadur Shastri’s warning immediately before the 1965 war.
The political leadership in India after showing initial restraint has also kowtowed to the jingoists’ calls for revenge. The normally restrained Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has declared that it can no longer be ‘business as usual’ with Pakistan, also announcing suspension of the painstakingly crafted new visa regime between New Delhi and Islamabad the very day it was scheduled to be operative.
With the extremist Shiv Sena spewing menace, the Pakistani hockey players signed up to play in the newly-launched professional league matches in India have been sent packing back home, ostensibly owing to safety concerns. Participation of the Pakistani women’s cricket team in the ICC World Cup, scheduled to be held in Mumbai at the end of the month, is also in jeopardy.
All this is symptomatic of the fragile nature of India-Pakistan relations. Though Ajmal Kasab, the lone surviving gunman of 26/11, has been convicted and hanged, New Delhi is still fixated upon Pakistan handing over perpetrators of the Mumbai carnage.
India also wants Pakistan to restrain militant outfits like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) which it alleges is operating with impunity across the LoC. Islamabad, on the other hand, perhaps considering the LeT chief Hafiz Saeed as a strategic ally, is reluctant to do so. Its official position remains that the cleric, who misses no opportunity to bait India, is merely doing charity work and that he has broken no laws in Pakistan.
New Delhi also wants Islamabad to grant it the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status without further procrastination. At the same time, though, it is not willing to have meaningful talks on major outstanding issues like Kashmir, Sir Creek or Siachen.
It has been proved time and again that unless there are result-oriented talks on the core issues, CBMs like trade and visa regime will not work on their own. New Delhi is not willing to discuss the status of Kashmir which it considers non-negotiable. Different formulas short of self-determination for the Kashmiris have been fruitlessly put on the table over the years.
Khurshid Kasuri, Pakistan’s foreign minister under Musharraf, claims a formula had been agreed upon. But before it could be sealed, Musharraf’s quasi-military regime was destabilised as a result of the lawyers’ movement in 2007.
The bottom line, however, remains that any arrangement on Kashmir would not fly unless it has the backing of the people. It is strange that the military under Musharraf was playing ball with India through back channel diplomacy but plays an obstructionist role when the shoe is on the other foot.
The jihadists, on the other hand, after being nurtured for Kashmir have turned against their erstwhile mentors. The Pakistani military having lost almost three thousand men fighting terrorism in the past two years faces an existential threat from the militants.
Under Musharraf, the architect of the disastrous Kargil misadventure, things were different. Now it no longer serves Pakistan’s interests or that of the peace in the subcontinent to back them. Even the military has amended its Green Book to declare that internal terrorism is a bigger threat than India.
The PPP-led coalition is too busy dealing with multifarious internal challenges. Apart from the recent shenanigans of the maverick Sufi cleric Tahirul Qadri, a failing economy, instability in Balochistan and an increasingly hostile Supreme Court are threatening its very existence.
Across the border, Manmohan Singh’s government is also weak and beleaguered. The Indian prime minister, caving under the pressure of the hardliner BJP and a belligerent army chief, had no option but to take a hard line on Pakistan. Although the term of the Congress-led United Front government ends next year, it is already in the general elections mode.
For both India and Pakistan, this is hardly the time to have meaningful talks. As Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar has stated, foreign minister level talks can help to diffuse the tension in the air. Judging from the temper in New Delhi, it is however unlikely that India would even agree to foreign ministers of the two countries meeting any time soon.
The recent imbroglio has inexorably set the clock back on bilateral relations between the two nuclear powers. Scuttling the new visa regime between India and Pakistan by Manmohan Singh is a real setback. And it will be a miracle if status quo ante is restored until general elections are held and new governments are put in office in both Pakistan and India.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today