Tahirul Qadri’s bubble

About to burst

The challenge posed by Tahirul Qadri, who describes himself as a Pakistani national by birth and a Canadian national by choice, has at last brought together almost the entire the opposition, both inside and outside the Parliament. What they all agree upon is that Qadri’s demand for the postponement of elections is unacceptable. Any delay in the elections, they maintain, would have disastrous consequences. It is now Tahirul Qadri and Altaf Hussain on one side and PPP, PML-N, ANP, Tehrik-e-Insaf, BNP, PkMAP, Jamaat-e-Islami, JUI-F, JUI-S, etc on the other.

The development has failed to dissuade Tahir-ul-Qadri who continues to pursue his mission like a man possessed. Earlier, when asked by Ch Shujaat to reconsider the march on Islamabad, the TMQ chief had said he would review the situation after the Karachi public meeting. The big gathering at the meeting further boosted the ego of the man. He insists now that he is available for persuasion only till January 10 after which there will be no turning back from the march. Zadari’s chief firefighter has visited London but has failed to persuade Altaf that being a coalition partner his party should desist from participating in the march. He has been duly snubbed and told to talk to Tahirul Qadri at his Lahore residence.

Qadri has condescended to talk to the president and prime minister provided they travel to Lahore to meet him. After all it is not Qadri who needs them. He won’t care to give audience to the interior minister who otherwise also enjoys little credibility in the country. The talks have to be to the point, Qadri has told. No ifs and buts, no pleasantries, no empty talk. Negotiations alone could not prevent the long march, but the government must implement all the constitutional provisions as interpreted by Qadri to force him to rethink his decision. Any interim government announced to pre-empt the march would be rejected forthright. The PPP and PML-N, which have continued to delay a decision through mutual consultations on an interim setup, have been overtaken by events.

The delay by the two parties in announcing the election schedule and in agreeing on the interim setup have provided space to Tahirul Qadri. The political nonentity is now trying to dictate to the parliament in an attempt to try to undermine the democratic setup.

The president, who is also the Co-chairman of the PPP, is authorised to announce the election schedule. He seems to have waited for a situation that could be helpful in turning the tide in favour of his government. He perhaps had been told by some pir that a miracle was going to change the situation in PPP’s favour. The miracle could be a respite in gas-cum-power shortages or a perfect election strategy that would rout the opponents. The shortages persist and there is little hope of any improvement during the period preceding the elections. The grand strategy of winning elections through joint panels with the PML-Q failed to give a clean sweep to the PPP. With Wattoo as the allied supreme commander, Punjab turned into PPP’s Waterloo. A feeling of insecurity has led Zardari to delay the election schedule for the time being. This has also caused suspicions among the PML-N hawks who thought the PPP might in fact be pondering over an extension of its tenure by another year.

The quest for a miracle also delayed the formation of the interim setup. After the PPP agreed to the nomination of Fakhruddin G Ibrahim as CEC, at the suggestion of the PML-N, the former hoped that the other party would feel morally bound to agree to an interim PM of PPP’s choice. As the PML-N too wanted to bargain from a position of strength, it declined to oblige. To seize the initiative Ch Nisar Ali initiated negotiations with the opposition parties. He then declared that a consensus had been reached among almost the entire opposition on a set of names, only to be contradicted by the PTI. The matter remains unsettled.

Some of the decisions taken by the independent EC have displeased the PML-Q and MQM who are used to docile election commissions. They believe the EC is too much under the influence of the SC and is not willing to take independent decisions. The PPP, therefore, insists that neither a retired judge nor a technocrat is fit to act as the PM as anyone swayed by the influence of the judiciary or the media can create problems for the system. The party would like only a political figure to be nominated as interim PM. The PML-N is now double minded about its former nominees. But agreeing on a politician is no easy matter. Two politicians from Balochistan have been approached in the past. They declined the offer. Even a man like Raza Rabbani, who commands respect among the opposition, is after all a PPP loyalist, say the PML-N hawks.

Competition between the PPP and PML-N for a better bargaining position led to delay in talks on the formation of the interim setup. At different occasions each proclaimed that the postponement could not lead to a deadlock and in case of their failure in evolving a consensus, the ECP would itself nominate the caretaker PM. Now both sides are afraid of the option. The lingering mistrust however still stands in the way.

The almost universal opposition to Tahirul Qadri encompassing mainstream parties, religious parties and nationalist groups is a sign of maturity. This guarantees that the system is not derailed. In case the establishment does not side with Qadri, the bubble created by him will not take long to burst.

The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.