Our political juggling

The show that never fails to entertain

No matter what way one looks at it, the PPP and its principal ally, the PML-Q, has been trounced in the recent by-elections in the Punjab. Manzoor Wattoo, the PPP’s freshly launched “weapon of mass destruction” in the province has simply failed to deliver.

Neither could the indefatigable Choudharys of Gujrat save the PML-Q from an ignominious defeat. Alone against the rest, the PML-N bagged seven out of the eight seats contested in the by-elections.

Predictably, Wattoo, like a bad loser, has accused the Punjab government of rigging the by-polls, a charge vehemently rejected by the PML-N and unsubstantiated by the Election Commission. With so much egg on his face what else the freshly inducted maverick president of the PPP Punjab could say in his defence?

The wily Wattoo, in order to grab the top slot of the PPP in Punjab, had probably promised the moon to Zardari, the party co-chairperson. In the process, he alienated the Choudharys who considered them to be the main arbiters for the PPP in Punjab.

It is obvious that right on the eve of the general elections, PPP’s new strategy in the largest province of the federation is in disarray. The PPP in Punjab has been rudderless, merely playing second fiddle to the Sharifs. Most of its leaders in the province lost their vigour and enthusiasm a long time ago – if they ever had it.

Wattoo was certainly not the answer to their prayers. He is generally unacceptable to the rank and file of the party. His first stint as Chief Minister of Punjab in 1993 was largely owing to the establishment’s keenness to remove Nawaz Sharif’s nominee as chief minister in order to deprive the Sharifs of their power base.

He again headed a PML-Junejo-PPP alliance in the Punjab but after less than two years was removed by Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on charges of corruption. Despite differences with the Choudharys, Wattoo enjoyed the fruits of power under Musharraf as part of the PML-Q until November 2007.

A formidable force in his own constituency, Wattoo is part of the PPP since after the 2008 election. But understandably he is neither acceptable to the PPP nor the PML-Q in Punjab. While the PML-N considering him a quisling is nothing but contempt for him.

Invoking the incumbency factor, there are many who will try to explain away the results of the by-elections as being a forgone conclusion. Nonetheless, whether it recognises it or not, the PPP has a serious problem at hand in the Punjab.

It cannot merely depend upon the South of Punjab to deliver in enough seats in the general elections. Nor the Imran Khan factor can be entirely relied upon to divide anti-PPP votes. As has been proved in the by-elections, seat adjustment with PML-Q may not work and hence could prove to be a damp squib.

The Lahore High Court has stated that its order on the president holding dual offices needs to be complied with. The Election Commission has however removed the offices of the president and governors of the four provinces from the list of public office holders barred from taking part in election campaigns.

The court is also threatening to entertain contempt of court proceedings against the president if he continues to hold dual offices. Coupled with the Supreme Court verdict in the Asghar Khan case, Zardari will have to negotiate many a political and legal minefield to actively campaign for his party.

Despite the risks involved, he has no option but to campaign for his party. Bilawal Bhutto is a keen apprentice and a possible charismatic figure for the party in the future. However, being unable to contest the next general elections owing to his age, he is too young and inexperienced to make a difference.

The opposition has resented Bilawal’s presence along with his father in the recent D-8 summit in Islamabad. Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Ch Nisar Ali disapproved on the ground that he had no official status to be present at such a meeting.

Imran Khan, who prides himself for PTI being the only party holding its elections, has also singled out Bilawal. Pledging that since he does not believe in hereditary politics, his son Salman will never enter politics.

Sons, daughters and in-laws in politics are as much part of our political culture as jalsas and jaloos (public meetings and rallies). Hamza Shahbaz Sharif, Mariam Nawaz, Captain (retd) Safdar of the PML-N or Moonis Elahi, the prodigal son of Ch Pervez Elahi, and various cousins and daughters on nominated women seats in the assemblies bear witness to this affliction across the wide political spectrum.

Why single out poor Bilawal? His grandfather Zulfikar Ali Bhutto sacrificed his life for a democratic Pakistan, hanged by a military dictator. His mother Benazir Bhutto, mercilessly killed on Musharraf’s watch, gave her life for the same cause.

The next general elections will be the first held by a genuinely civilian setup under the auspices of a consensual caretaker government and an independent election commission. These elections will be a watershed in laying down solid democratic foundations for the future.

In this sense, it is incumbent upon the Election Commission to walk the talk. In backdrop of complaints of violence and selective rigging in the by-polls, it should get its act together, lest it becomes controversial even before the elections are held.

The PML-N, largely confined to Central Punjab, having little or no presence in Sindh and Balochistan and a limited mandate in KP, can hardly expect a repeat of the “heavy mandate” of 1997. Similarly, the PPP despite claims to the contrary is not expected to do well in Central Punjab or bag much in KP. Imran Khan, notwithstanding his “tsunami”, remains a wild card in the pack.

Whatever the outcome of the general elections, it can be predicted with a fair amount of certainty that the next government will be a coalition as well.

The MQM is miffed about delimitation orders of the Supreme Court to undo gerrymandering in Karachi. It has also strongly objected to verification of the voters’ lists in the mega metropolis.

If the MQM has actually graduated from Mohajir Quomi Movement to its present nomenclature Muttehda Quomi Movement, it should rather welcome it. Otherwise, its critics will be justified in saying, “the tiger can change its spots but not its stripes!”

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today