First defeat

Politics trounces calculations

It was one against two in Punjab bye-elections this time. The PML-N single-handedly took on the PPP-Q League alliance, winning seven out of eight seats. The calculations made by the alliance proved to be baseless. The debacle was the result of the alliance’s defective strategy which was built around the simplistic notion that by combining the votes of the two parties, they could defeat the PM-N.

It was agreed that the PPP or PML-Q’s winner of 2008 election would automatically become the joint candidate in a constituency. In constituencies where both parties were losers, the runner-up either of PPP or PML-Q was to be considered the legitimate claimant to the seat.

The notion was based on two assumptions that the results of the polls have called to question. First, it was assumed that the level of popularity of the two parties in Punjab was either higher than 2008 or at least equal to it. Secondly, that the voters of the two parties would all vote for their joint candidate.

The (mis)calculations have led to the catastrophic results for the alliance. The PPP has failed to win even a single seat in Punjab. The PML-Q too had to eat a humble pie. The later, however, fared better than the PPP as it managed to snatch a provincial seat in Narowal from the party ruling Punjab. In the rest of the constituencies it continued to lose by big margins.

Claims made by the new PPP Punjab boss Manzoor Wattoo to give PML-N tough time turned out to be empty.

A cursory look on the polls results makes unmistakably clear that many PPP and PML-Q voters failed to vote for their joint candidates or voted instead for the PML-N. This is by no means altogether baseless. Till they joined hands nearly three years back, the two parties believed they had to settle blood feuds. While the higher leadership has brokered an understanding, middle ranking leaders and most of the workers in both the parties have not reconciled with the decision. They continue to nurse the grouse that was cultivated over the years.

The results in some of the constituencies amply justify the conclusion.

PPP’s provincial information secretary Raja Amir, who in 2008 elections had contested for the PP-122, Sialkot-II, had won 11,038 votes to end up as the runner-up. Omer Farooq Dar of the PML-Q had secured 9,961 votes at the time. Those issuing the tickets believed that with the synergy released by the alliance it would either lead to victory or a neck to neck race. Raja, however, managed to get only 5,1234 votes compared to his opponent who bagged 27,291.

In Gujranwala as well, fewer votes were cast for the PPP than in 2008. Its candidate Lala Asad had secured 23,892 votes emerging as runner-up in the last elections. It was expected by the planners that he would also get the 6,019 votes cast for the Q League candidate in 2008 elections. This time his score declined to a mere 16,492. The setback of over 7,000 votes this time indicates that while many of his own party voters ignored him, he presumably could not get any of the votes polled previously by the PML-Q candidate.

The PPP had won NA-162 Sahiwal in 2008. In fact, what it had won was an MNA but not the constituency. So when Zahid Iqbal resigned and decided to contest the bye-elections on a PML-N ticket, the PPP was left with no candidate to fight the elections. The party then decided to back a pro-PTI candidate. This was in line with the alliance’s policy decision to support the strongest candidate opposing the PML-N in a constituency where it could not put up its own candidates. The pro-PTI candidate, supported in accordance with direction, however failed to win the majority votes. Many voters of the alliance obviously lost interest in the polls and did not turn up at the booths.

Even more telltale is the outcome of the polling is NA-107, Gujrat-IV, where the joint nominee of the two parties lost the elections by a considerable margin. In 2008, PML-Q’s Ch Naseer Rehman had polled 69,101 votes while the PPP candidate had got 14,948. Their combined strength of over 84,000 votes was considered enough to defeat the PML-N whose candidate had then polled 75,202 votes. Naseer Rehman, however, could muster only 76,000 votes this time compared to PML-N nominee’s over 100,000 votes. The results indicate that instead of voting for the candidate, who is a PPP turncoat affiliated with PML-Q, many PPP voters , out of sheer frustration and anger, cast their votes for the PML-N nominee, thus providing the latter an unprecedented lead of over 24,000. It is easier to forgive an enemy than a renegade.

No occasion for the PML-N to celebrate though. It has just managed to save its skin and no more. The party has, in fact, emerged worse off than in 2008. It lost one provincial seat to PML-F in bye-elections. It retained another by deciding to support an independent rather than launching its own nominee. The winner subsequently announced joining the PML-N.

The PPP has suffered the disaster of its logic. People in the eyes of the Party’s leadership are not the real agents of change. They can be easily ignored be them in Punjab, Sindh, KP or Balochistan. Party workers are to be commanded, rather than listened to.

What matters is wheeling and dealing and alliances that need not be principled. What is required to achieve power and to retain it is a policy of reconciliation with influential groups irrespective of the policy they follow, even if this amounts to a betrayal of the masses. The formula is simple: in general elections, an understanding with the PML-Q, MQM and ANP. Add to that what Punjab PPP Information Secretary Raja Amir told media early this month that if they “form an unannounced anti-PML-N alliance with the support of PTI and JI at local level in these constituencies” and everything will be honky dory. The alliance has met the first defeat on account of the strategy. What remains to be seen is if this is going to be the only one.

The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.