The winds of change

If there ever were any

Demands for a change in Pakistan’s internal and external policies, particularly its handling of extremism, terrorism and Afghanistan issues, have long been made. But these were apparently ignored and no shift was seen at any level for a long time. However, positive signals have been felt during the recent days and weeks. The optimism started with the August 13 speech of Chief of Army Staff at PMA, Kakul. But many didn’t believe that he was speaking from his heart when he said that war against the terrorists was ‘our own’ and therefore ‘just’. Hence there were not many takers.

Then the issue of an operation in North Waziristan Agency started taking twists. First, indications started coming in that a full fledged military onslaught against groups entrenched in NWA was on the cards. The cowardly attack on Malala gave rise to expectations that the time had come for the Taliban to be on the run. But there was conspiracy theories’ galore in the country and many quarters alleged that the Malala’s incident was being used to prepare ground for an action in tribal areas.

Gen Kayani came hard on terrorists once again when he visited her at CMH Peshawar on October 9, 2012. Strongly condemning the act, Kayani said, “The cowards who attacked Malala and her fellow students have time and again shown how little regard they have for human life and how low they can stoop to impose their twisted ideology.” Kayani said that Malala had become a symbol for the values that the army, with the nation behind it, was fighting for [in order] to preserve future generations. “We wish to bring home a simple message: We refuse to bow before terror. We will fight, regardless of the cost. We will prevail,” he said.

It was now considered to be time for the political leadership/civilian government to come forward and take ownership of any action that the military might initiate against terrorists. President Asif Ali Zardari waited for an appropriate occasion to do it. And he did it at the Economic Cooperation Organisation’s summit in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku on October 15, 2012. Terming attempt on Malala’s life as an attack on all Pakistani girls and the civilisation itself, he reaffirmed his country’s commitment that the fight against terrorists would continue till the last man standing.

Then Marc Grossman, the former US Special Representative, came to Pakistan on 20 October. But contrary to expectations that he would discuss the nitty-gritty of North Waziristan operation, a statement was issued on his behalf saying that US, Afghanistan and Pakistan were working on new strategies to bring peace in the region. A deafening silence ensued and North Waziristan went on the back burner. As observers were yet guessing as to what the new strategies could be that Grossman hinted at, Salahuddin Rabbani, President of the Afghan High Peace Council visited Islamabad in mid-November. The visit resulted in yet another unexpected development; Pakistan decided to release some of the Afghan Taliban held for a long time by the authorities concerned. This was a clear shift in the country’s undeclared stance regarding those figures whose release Kabul was demanding since long. It gave the signal that Pakistan was now genuinely interested to see the peace process in Afghanistan succeed, or at least give it a chance to take off.

In the meanwhile, another miracle happened. On November 5, the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement of the Chief of Army Staff. Though it had been issued in a purely different domestic perspective, the statement contained some words which were all-encompassing. Gen Kayani said, “We are critically looking at the mistakes made in the past and [are] trying to set the course for a better future.” Though the statement was largely criticised in the media for its conceived infringement into other institutions’ jurisdiction, optimists looked at the positive aspects of it and related it to the overall internal and external situation, including army’s domineering role in deciding national security paradigm.

Latest developments in the series are 1) the statement of Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar about Pak-US relations and 2) the federal cabinet’s approval of National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) Bill, 2012.

Reports from Brussels about the engagements of foreign minister and COAS with the US, NATO and European Union are also encouraging. The first message from the composition of Pakistani delegation is that both the civilian and military leaderships are on the same page now as far as resolving the Afghan issue or relationship with the US and allied countries are concerned. The renewal of strategic partnership offer to Pakistan by the EU and the statement of American official that both the countries were now on the ‘same page’ regarding reconciliation process in Afghanistan, are important developments. Side by side, the announcement of the release of $600 million from the Coalition Support Fund (CFS) by the visiting US delegation in Islamabad on Dec 4 is also a signal of improvement of tie between the two countries and a change in Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives.

The approval of the NACTA Bill 2012 by the cabinet coincided with the statement of foreign minister. The bill is aimed at creating a more powerful anti-terror body with an expanded, sweeping mandate to deal with all things terrorism related which will act as a coordination and information sharing platform between different intelligence agencies, military and civilian, as well as law enforcement agencies.

To many of the optimists, these developments indicate that some real changes are in the offing and we may see shifts in the country’s external and internal policies. To begin with, some positive changes are needed in the face of failures brought in by policies pursued so far. They have resulted in erosion of Pakistan’s clout in Afghanistan while failing in achieving its long term objectives there. They have also isolated the country internationally, rather made it an international pariah thereby bringing it economically on the verge of bankruptcy. And last, but not the least, our previous policies with regard to Afghanistan and terrorism have brought more internal social, political and religious chaos than achieving external security.

A responsible transition and long term peace in Afghanistan is more in the interest of Pakistan than any other country. And signs of change in its policy with regard to that is a good omen for our future. Improvement in relationship with USA and ending its international isolation will also bode well for rebuilding its international image. This will definitely bring economic pitfalls in its wake which will be helpful in improving living conditions in the country. The NACTA is the best development among all. First and foremost, it will bring the civilian and military setups at the same page, with input from both the sides. This can help laying out a national security and counter-terrorism policy which will not only be transparent but also enjoy consensus of the nation. Secondly, it envisages introducing changes into domains that are internally promoting extremist mindset which, in turn, fuel terrorism.

There is every possibility that the people will support any meaningful change that will bring peace and prosperity to them. This will also steer the country away from the existentionalist threat it has been faced with in the form of religious, sectarian and terrorist quarters. After all, what good the existing pro-right and religious policies have brought to the state and its armed forces? Munawar Hasan has already said that ‘the issue of jihad’ against Pakistan Army can be considered if it continued with its ‘pro-US’ policies regarding Afghanistan. So, do we want to continue those policies which have so far satisfied none and which have only brought miseries and destruction to the nation? Their further continuation will mean that the mullah of every hue will be declaring jihad against the state and its army, with the flag of religion in their hands and the whole nation following them to annihilate those who they consider friends of anti-Islam forces.

The writer can be reached at [email protected]