The Afghanistan situation
A dramatic change in the approach to Afghan conflict is coming to the fore. From primarily a military method, matters evolved to a strategy that involved fighting and talking at the same time. Now, NATO and US have thanked Pakistan for freeing of some high profile imprisoned Taliban, and for facilitating the Afghan-led peace process. Previously, Pakistan was blamed for not doing enough to crack down on Afghan Taliban residing in FATA.
The change in NATO strategy does not mean it is without options. While Pakistan has remained the focus of attention, recent events have pointed to the suspicious regional role Karzai government is increasingly playing, especially in FATA and Balochistan. However, while speaking at the Centre for a New American Security, Leon Panetta reiterated the US position on November 20, “Look, in many ways, the success in Afghanistan is dependent on having a Pakistan that is willing to confront terrorism on its side of the border and prevent (militant) safe havens.”
Ever since Pakistan declared its acquiesce towards a terrorist label for Haqqani network, the harsher criticism from the American side has somewhat diminished. There is another noteworthy change in the region that came about in the aftermath of Malala incident. The US acknowledged that the perpetrator of the attack, Moulana Fazlullah, was indeed hiding in the North East Afghanistan as alleged by Pakistan. Reportedly, an unnamed US official told The Washington Post “Finding Fazlullah is not a priority because he is not affiliated with Al-Qaeda or with insurgents targeting US and Afghan interests.”
Ironically, it’s the same argument used by Pakistan; it does not act against the Haqqanis because they do not target it. Although, there is one subtle difference, Haqqanis are tied to Al-Qaeda but Fazlullah is not.
Earlier, in August, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik had commented that elements within the Afghan government were likely supporting Fazlullah. He told Reuters “I think some of the elements (of the Afghan government) there are supporters. Maybe state actors, maybe non-state actors.” The emphasis in the accusation was the same as that levelled against Pakistan for its role in Afghanistan.
Nonetheless, it is clear from the above statements that Pakistan is being destabilised from Afghanistan with the active support of Karzai government while NATO forces have intentionally looked the other way. This obviously does not bode well for the Pak-Afghan relations and the envisioned economic integration of the region.
The Afghan role in the deteriorating situation of Balochistan has also come under focus. In March, Pakistan’s interior minister claimed that President Karzai had admitted some inference in Balochistan was taking place from Afghanistan. “President Karzai has promised to stop infiltration of militants from Afghanistan into Pakistan,” Rehman Malik told reporters.
Speaking to Pakistan’s Senate in August, Malik presented the recruitment and training process for those conducting terror related activities in Balochistan. He elaborated that after receiving basic training in about 45 training camps, brainwashed youngsters are sent to Afghanistan to obtain advance training. For proof, he showed official letters written by Afghan government to fund and support the activities of Brahmdagh Bugti and his followers.
Another aspect of Pakistan’s concern with Afghanistan has to do with the nature of its ties with India. President Karzai visited India for five days in mid-November. The two countries previously signed a strategic agreement in 2011 and India has already committed two billion dollars in assistance for Afghanistan. During the visit, Karzai was not just seeking more investments, but also testing Indian limits in enhancing the capacity of Afghan security forces. As far as Pakistan is concerned, training of Afghan military forces by India is another sensitive matter.
It is not clear what the US intentions are in regards to India’s military role in Afghanistan. Although India itself is wary of its military involvement, the US has encouraged it to take on a more active role once NATO begins to limit its military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014. There is obviously a risk that in addition to the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan may also become a theatre for tussles between India and Pakistan. In the wider politics of Middle East, the NATO and US tilt has thus far been in favour of Sunni groups. This stance is unlikely to change as long as Iran remains a bone of contention.
Although India has abided with western sanctions on Iran and in restricting economic affairs with the country, Afghanistan and Pakistan have continued to deal with it. The insistence of Afghanistan and Pakistan on diversifying economic and energy relations with Iran are some of the other complicating factors when it comes to US-Pakistan relations and the future of Afghanistan. While talking to a private TV channel at the D8 Summit in Islamabad, Ahmedinejad emphasised how Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan can solve many of the regional problems themselves, and foreign presence was the reason for the perpetuating conflict. While Afghanistan has signed an agreement with the US allowing its military to remain there beyond 2014, Iran has alleged that US bases are being used to destabilise Iran and Pakistan.
Afghanistan also continues to play with Pakistan’s sensitivities when it comes to the Durand Line. The country went in to an uproar when Mark Grossman presented the US position on the issue. In an interview on Afghan TV on October 21, he stated: “Our policy is that that border is the international border.” Other commentary that surrounded the debate pointed to the fact that Pakistan’s alarm about Afghan intentions is not that out of place. In all three countries – Pakistan, Afghanistan and India – there are those who want to undo history.
While Pakistan is blamed for the cross-border attacks emanating from FATA, what has emerged is that the Afghans and NATO forces are equally at fault for the out of control provinces of Kunar and Nuristan. The security forces of Pakistan have repeatedly suffered deadly strikes in Bajaur, Swat and Dir, from militants linked to Fazlullah. There are fears Taliban resurgence may once again be occurring in the area.
The writer is the chief analyst for PoliTact (www.PoliTact.com and http:twitter.com/politact) and can be reached at aansar@politact.com