On the Universal Children’s Day, UNICEF issued a new research paper highlighting a forecast for global demographic shifts for the coming generation of children that presents major challenges to policy makers and planners.
The paper stated that by 2050 one in every three births would be African and one in every three children would be under the age of 18. A hundred years earlier, sub-Saharan Africa’s share of births was just one in 10.
The paper titled ‘Generation 2025 and beyond: The critical importance of understanding demographic trends for children of the 21st century’, stated that deaths of children under five years of age would continue to be concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, in pockets of poverty and marginalization in populous lower-income countries and in the least developed nations.
“What is important is whether the world, as it prepares for the post-2015 agenda, takes account of this fundamental and unprecedented shift,” said co-author David Anthony. “We must do everything possible so these children can get an equal chance to survive, develop and reach their full potential.”
In October 2011, the world’s population reached 7 billion and according to current projections will hit 8 billion by 2025. The paper stated that the next billion global inhabitants would still be children by 2025 and 90 per cent of them would have been born in less developed regions.
The paper projected a modest four per cent increase in the global population of children by 2025, but population growth would shift significantly to countries in the South.
According to these projections, 49 countries classified as the world’s least developed nations, would account for around 455 million of the 2 billion global births between 2010 and 2025. Five populous middle income countries, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria, would account for about 859 million births between 2010 and 2025.
The only high-income country projected to have an increasing proportion of children by 2025 is the United States.
By 2050, one in three children would be born in Africa: UNICEF
