The three way fight

PML-N, PPP and PTI vying to rule the largest province

With an intention to turn the tables on the PML-N in Punjab, the PPP has launched a new team led by Manzoor Wattoo and Tanvir Ashraf Kaira. Wattoo is a hardnosed politician who has during the last three decades traversed the entire political terrain in pursuit of power from PML-Junejo, to PML-Jinnah to PML-Q and finally to PPP.

During his several sojourns he has also been a part of the much-maligned IJI and the PML-Q led alliance under Musharraf. Long before Zardari entered politics, Wattoo was already practicing the art of reconciliation with all who were willing to help him acquire power. Kaira, on the other hand, is a dyed in the wool PPP activist, albeit a raw hand in politics. The task given to Wattoo is to bring into PPP the politically influential families in Punjab. He has announced that he would deliver Punjab to the PPP.

The team has entered the arena with a bang with Wattoo ranting muck like professional wrestlers do in the arena. This might raise the morale of the PPP workers but would be of little help in winning over the voters. Will the PPP manage to steal a march on the PML-N through this team?

Wattoo is seen as a double-edged sword by PML-Q. The Chaudhrys who eye the post of the provincial chief minister see in Manzoor Wattoo a wily competitor. They are equally uncomfortable with the promotion of Kaira as PPP’s provincial general secretary because his rise could diminish their influence in Gujrat.

Unlike 2008, this time the traditional rivals have to reckon with another competitor in Punjab, the PTI. This adds a new complexity to the fight for power in the most populous province of Pakistan.

The PPP fared badly in Punjab in the 2008 elections, getting 51 seats in the National Assembly as compared to 66 by the PML-N. It failed to win even a single NA seat in 12 districts as compared to six in the case of the PML-N. The PML-Q bagged 26 seats. It would be simplistic to argue that the combined strength of the PPP and PML-Q, now allies, being larger than that of the PML-N, they can win the forthcoming elections hands down.

In politics perceptions about parties and leaders remain in a process of perpetual flux. That is why a government winning by a big margin can lose the next election. The PPP-led alliance and the PML-N have both been in power for a complete term. Both are going to be judged on the basis of their performance.

The PPP can rightly claim credit for restoring the 1973 constitution, taking crucial powers from the president and handing them over to the prime minister, increasing the share of the provinces in the divisible pool, enhancing the quantum of provincial autonomy and devising a system for free and transparent elections. On the flip side are the shortages of power and gas, the double digit inflation and the constant rise in the number of the unemployed. These factors have led to a significant rise in the poverty graph. Two weeks back, the Senate was informed by the federal minister for national food security and research that up to 58 percent of the country’s population suffered from food insecurity. Of the total affected population, he said, 29.6 percent suffered from hunger or severe hunger. Further that the situation had deteriorated during the last four years. The vast majority of the PPP voters are more likely to be swayed by the negative factors that pester them every day than improvements in the constitution and electoral system.

Being a handmaiden of Musharraf during 2002-2008 period, the PML-Q is rightly held responsible for policy decisions taken by the military ruler that widened the gulf between the richest and the poorest sections of population. That explains PLM-Q’s bad performance in 2008 elections. Not that the party’s record was altogether negative. It gave the urban centres of Punjab an efficient system of traffic control, a widely appreciated emergency service and the Food Street in Lahore frequented by commoners and the elite alike till it was wound up by an envious PML-N government. There is hardly anything worthwhile the party can claim credit for since its alliance with the PPP. What is more the party has fractured during the period, particularly in the Punjab, losing much of the strength it possessed in 2008. There is thus no guarantee that by fighting the election jointly the two will be able to capture the majority vote.

The plight of the PML-N is no different. The party claims its government has distributed thousands of computers to brilliant students and set up Danish Schools for the talented who could not pay heavy fees. Despite the denunciation of the schemes by the PML-N baiters as stunts to gain cheap popularity, these have benefitted tens of thousands. The performance of Lahore Metro Bus project is yet to be judged. So far the dislocation caused by the project, with several changes in plans causing delays in completion, have given rise to widespread complaints in the second largest city in the country while it is being pointed out that Rs 7.7 billion are being spent on a single city of the province.

Will the PML-N be able to cash in on these projects remains to be seen. As both the PPP and PML-N suffer from the incumbency factor, the comparison between the two is likely to be made not on the basis of who is more popular but who is less unpopular.

The voters this time are not being forced to choose between two parties. The PTI has emerged as yet another political force. The strongest point in PTI’s favour is that while the others have been in power and failed to come up to the voters’ expectations, the PTI is yet to be tried and tested. Those fed up with the PPP and PML-N look up to Imran Khan as the right man. The youth, particularly those from the urban middle class, have joined the party in droves. The PTI has thus thousands of youthful and enthusiastic activists to work for its candidates all over Punjab – an advantage not possessed by the PPP or PML-N.

The PTI depends entirely on the charisma of Imran Khan. This constitutes both the strength and the weakness of the party. It has yet to build its election machinery and choose its candidates. Compared to last year’s crescendo of popularity, the party has faced several desertions while its Waziristan march was no match to its public gatherings in Lahore, Karachi and Quetta. Imran Khan can be at both the competitors if he is able to build the election machinery and at the same time generate the last year’s momentum in Punjab. If he cannot do this, the contest would be between the old rivals.

The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.