From Russia without love

Ramifications of Vladimir Putin’s eleventh hour snub

The thing with divorce, much like most acts involving human bonding, is that it needs a catalyst to accelerate it. The catalyst could come in various shapes and sizes; although ideally it should be a member of the opposite sex who has an appealing shape and size. It has been this lack of catalyst that has delayed the much-awaited US-Pak divorce, with both sides regularly throwing tantrums of agitation clarifying how they’d much rather be without each other. With both countries crawling towards the rupture point, Russia was all set to be that voluptuous catalyst, set to woo Pakistan away from the clutches of grumpy old Uncle Sam, before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s heart did a summersault leaving the budding Islamabad-Moscow love, in veritable jeopardy.

Putin was scheduled to visit Islamabad on October 2 to participate in a quadrilateral summit featuring Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan, with additional bilateral talks with President Zardari as well. And there are scores of reasons why the trip was of particular importance for not only Pakistan but for the region as a whole.

The main aim of the four-nation summit was to carve out a post-US strategy for Afghanistan, now that the American forces look set to abscond around 2014, leaving a massive vacuum of influence crying out to be filled. And there aren’t many countries more anxious about the future of that particular vacuum than Pakistan. Pakistan’s apprehension is the natural offshoot of the rising Indian interest in Afghanistan, whose massive investment in Afghan reconstruction showcases their desire of having some sort of a foothold in the country – if the desire were to come to fruition that would mean India would be able to flank Pakistan from both wings, which wouldn’t be that pleasant a prospect for Islamabad. One conspiracy theory suggests that it has been the Indo-American duo that has collectively warded Putin away from his Pakistan visit, and in turn any involvement in Afghanistan. And in case this turns out to be true, that would mean that the Indo-American influence in Afghanistan would be the next status quo even after the US forces leave the country. Another thing that is gradually surfacing is that India – the latest ‘close ally’ for the US is doing what Pakistan did in the Cold War era: keeping the Russians out of the region, with indirect help from Washington.

Another drawback of Putin’s snub is that the promise of a Russia-Pakistan-China axis that seemed on the brink of surfacing in the region now seems like a farfetched prognostication. With Russia openly backing Pakistan’s membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization last year; extrovertly vowing to solve our gas troubles by showing interest in financing both the IP (Iran-Pakistan) and TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipelines; vying to streamline our electricity troubles by financing the Diamer Bhasha Dam and the $500 million worth CASA-1000 electricity transmission project – for the past couple of years Russia had been acting like a passionate Romeo; throwing money, giving his Juliet all the attention in the world and basically doing anything and everything to convince his sweetheart of his affection – the sweetheart however turned out more high maintenance than her profile suggests (as our second conspiracy theory would divulge). After Russian maneuvers to woo Pakistan became increasingly conspicuous; that coupled with the traditional Sino-Pak bond and China’s Aynak copper mine deal in 2008 and $7 billion oil deal with Afghanistan last year, meant that the Moscow-Islamabad-Beijing trio seemed to be at the forefront of any decision making regarding Afghanistan in the future. The Russian president’s cold-shoulder has ensured that that axis goes pear-shaped.

On the bilateral front while the potential of energy and electricity based projects in Pakistan had brought Pakistan and Russia closer, ironically it is one of these projects that is said to be the reason behind Moscow’s unceremonious decision as well. Russian energy giant Gazprom has been eying IP and wanted to finance the $1.2 billion worth project, but Pakistan never came up with a concrete offer. Conspiracy theory number two suggests that the fact that Pakistan was holding out for an international bidding rather than offering the IP rights itself that has ticked off Putin. The reason being Pakistan’s historical offers to China without any international bidding and with Russia fighting off some serious antagonism to be a part of IP it is only natural that they would have expected something similar.

Nonetheless, Russian media, most notably the newspaper The Kommersant has been rubbishing the conspiracy theories and claiming that Putin opted out of the trip owing to a “tight schedule”. Considering that the summit was planned months ago, that explanation does not seem particularly plausible. However, the Russians downplaying the “postponement” and negating the conspiracy theories does connote that they do not want the Russia-Pakistan love-in to evaporate just yet. This is backed up by the Russian president inviting President Zardari over to Moscow in the letter that he sent announcing the postponement.

With Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Islamabad as you read this and General Ashfaq Kayani heading to Moscow with President Zardari set to follow him, if Pakistan and Russia can sort out their respective tantrums and mood swings they can still carve out a lucrative partnership that would benefit both sides economically and geo-strategically. It is a budding romance that the world has its eyes on, the fulfillment of which would throw quite a few cats among a multitude of very fragile pigeons.

The writer is a staff member and can be reached at [email protected]