Multi-dimensional issues, especially the establishment of Hazara province and Abaseen Division, would definitely influence the forthcoming election in Hazara division, considered a stronghold of Pakistan Muslim League since the inception of the country.
Both issues, along with growing influence of the Awami National Party, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf and internal rifts amongst the leaguers in all six districts of Hazara seem huge hurdles before the leaders and stalwarts of the PML-N who are eyeing a landslide win, like in 1993 and 1997.
Both factions of the PML swept the 2008 general election in Hazara, where its nominees returned victorious against maximum seats.
While the ANP and JUI-F also established their influence in the region with winning one berth each in the provincial assembly.
However, after establishing its government, the ANP succeeded in getting association of most of independent MPs beside influential families from Mansehra, Tanawal and Batgram.
On the other hand, JUI-F leaders took benefit of the PML-N’s mistake and won seats in the National Assembly.
Similarly, the PTI has also enhanced its influence by getting association of influential leaders like Azam Swati, Khurshid Azam Khan, Nisar Safdar, Yousaf Ayub Khan and others.
Though it is premature to say anything about the outcome of upcoming election in Hazara region, it might be hard for any single political force to gain majority.
However, beside PML factions, the JUI-F, ANP and PTI will definitely get some berths from the seven national and 22 provincial assembly seats.
Despite their claims, the PML-N leadership has suffered a lot due to internal rifts. Captain (r) Safdar’s failure to address wishes and expectations of electorates and the party’s defeat in by-elections after the death of Faiz Mohammad Khan, have badly affected the party’s reputation in Mansehra.
Similar is its position in almost all of Abbottabad and Haripur districts, while the party also seems completely uprooted in Batgram.
However, with the induction of Gohar Ayub Khan family and fielding of Maryam Nawaz Sharif in place of Captain (r) Safdar, the PML-N could restore its lost position in both Haripur and Mansehra districts.
Compared to Haripur and Mansehra, the PML-N position seems better in Abbottabad where its nominees could become victorious in case of isolation of other political forces.
On the issue of renaming of NWFP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, agitation turned violent when former provincial minister Baba Haider Zaman along with his aides and followers come out onto roads.
Besides demanding establishment of Hazara province, Zaman adopted a critical and hostile attitude towards the PML-N.
The move affected the image of PML-N and boosted up Zaman and his aides from PML-Q. So far, both Zaman and PML-Q leaders are one and united and might be harmful to the PML-N in the future. In Batgram, Tanwal and Torghar districts, the ANP leadership has made stable gains with drumming up support of influential families.
Former MNA Nawabzada Salahuddin Saeed, sitting MPA Habibur Rehman Tanoli from Mansehra, family of Ayub Khan of Alayee and Yousaf Tarand have already joined the ANP.
However, diehard ANP stalwarts from the area seem unhappy with what they call undue respect to leaders of both families, as in recent past, they developed a repute for “changing loyalties”.
But the disgruntled ANP stalwarts are firm on continuation of association with the party and they would honor party decisions regarding elections.
Like in the past, people from most backward and remote Kohistan district are still divided, but a majority is loyal to the PML-N, JUI-F and ANP.
The family of late Maulana Abdul Baqi recently joined the ANP along with Engineer Sajjad, who occupies a berth in the provincial assembly.
At the moment, the National Assembly seat is in PMLN’s control, while three provincial assembly seats are divided amongst different political forces.
Despite serious hurdles and opposition, the ANP has earned a good reputation in almost all of Hazara region and it popularity in Hazara is against the interests of none other then PML-N.