It’s being predictably unpredictable
The predictions of more than normal early monsoons failed while areas in Sindh like Thar faced severe drought. Heavy rains which had lashed the catchment areas days earlier have now entered KP, AJK and upper Punjab. The Federal Flood Commission has issued warnings of flood in Indus, Ravi and Chenab. About half a dozen people have been swept away by the floods while over two dozen have been killed in accidents caused by heavy rains. A spokesman for National Disaster Management Authority has said the death toll may rise as survey teams have reported more deaths but are still assessing the extent of damages.
The change in weather occurs at a time when the federal and the provincial governments are busy preparing for the next elections. The political parties are preoccupied with public meetings, talks between leaders and attempts at wooing supporters of the rival parties. There is a need now on the part of the federal and provincial governments to prepare for the emergency. To start with, they should put the provincial chapters of the NDMA and the related government departments on high alert.
Hopefully, the rains and the floods would remain within normal limits and whatever material losses have been suffered by the rain affected population would be shared, if not fully compensated, by the governments concerned. However, while hoping for the best one has to be prepared for the worst. This is all the more crucial at a time when elections are approaching. Any neglect on the part of the administration could result in major casualties, large scale displacement, failure to control epidemics and worsening of problems associated with rehabilitation. The performance of the ruling parties during the 2010 floods, and in the case of Sindh during the 2011 rains also, was widely considered to be unsatisfactory. A repetition of the same would have consequences for the electoral fortunes of the PPP and PML(N).
The changing weather patterns caused by the warming of the planet are having a global impact. Areas which had remained mostly dry are getting heavy rainfall while there is drought like conditions in rain fed areas. India expects 15 percent less monsoon rains this year which would badly affect its rice crop. There is a need under the circumstances for an understanding between the regional countries so that they are better able to deal with the twin menaces of drought and flooding. This may not bring under control the caprices of nature but would enable the countries to better deal with their dangerous after effects.