The PTI and the PML-N will learn the hard way
Near election time, the dirty tricks department of the PML-N has come into full swing. The knives are out for Imran khan, the new kid on the block. The Sharifs have unleashed their stalwarts, Khawaja Asif and Ch Nisar Ali Khan, on the PTI chief.
The present spat started when Imran Khan accused Nawaz Sharif’s younger scion of conducting mega deals abroad with laundered money. Naturally, Nawaz Sharif could not take this affront lying down.
Nisar has bitterly complained (with some justification) that Imran khan’s every press conference starts with criticism of Nawaz Sharif. “Why are Zardari, the PML-Q leadership and the MQM spared?” he laments.
The answer is simple. Imran is knocking at the doors of the Sharif’s heartland, the jewel in the crown: the Punjab. Although the Khan believes that he already has the support of seven million voters in the four provinces of Pakistan, the Sharifs are amply aware that his main focus is their domain in Punjab.
To be fair to Imran, as far he is concerned, there be a plague on both the houses. Nawaz is merely singled out as it his long-held constituency, ideological as well as electoral, which is being challenged.
Ironically, there is a confluence of interests between Zardari and Imran. Both need time before the polls, albeit for different reasons. Imran wants to organize his party and galvanize the phenomenal number of young voters, which he believes to be his core constituency.
The PPP wants as much time as possible before the elections to get a handle on electricity shortages and other governance issues. And, of course, to simply remain in power for as long as possible.
But the PML-N wants elections to be held at the earliest. The Sharifs used to perennially enjoying the perks and privileges of power have never been big crowd pullers. Although they think it is below their dignity to directly engage Imran, his popularity and appeal has certainly rattled them.
Harebrained projects like the laptop scheme and concerted efforts by the Punjab chief minister Shahbaz Sharif – who insists upon being addressed as “khadim-e-aala (the first servant)” – to woo the young and the uninitiated are a direct consequence of the PTI’s so-called tsunami.
On the ideological front, Imran Khan is directly challenging the long held suzerainty of the Sharifs. Ch Nisar pronounces ad nauseam that Imran is the test tube baby of the establishment, more specifically of the former spy chief general Shuja Pasha. But so was Nawaz Sharif, and for donkey years, he did their bidding.
It is only when Nawaz Sharif refused to play ball with the establishment that they adopted a credible alternative in the form of Imran Khan. Not so much to do their bidding but to protect the ideological frontiers as perceived by the deep state.
Not unsurprisingly, both Imran and Nawaz have the same worldview. Both are right-of-center in their policies. They are reluctant to criticize the Taliban favoring negotiations with them. And both believe in private enterprise and supporting big business. But, despite confluence of views and ideology, they have become sworn enemies.
The reason is simple; they appeal to similar constituencies. In spite of having a technocratic dream team gleaned from the private sector as well as defectors from different political parties, Imran Khan has a strong contingent of right wing jihadi elements amongst his core team.
Digging dirt against political opponents is nothing new in the PML-N culture. The Sharifs are rather good at this game. In the nineties when Benazir Bhutto was their nemesis, they subjected her to a concerted smear campaign.
Even forgeries were resorted to. A fake letter was leaked to the media ostensibly written by Benazir Bhutto as prime minister to her Washington-based friend and staffer on the US Senate foreign relations committee, Peter Galbraith. A personal smear campaign through false allegations was also launched against her.
During the same period when Imran Khan was emerging as a possible political threat, he was not spared either. Interviews and pictures of Sita White, Imran’s former girlfriend and mother of his child, suddenly started appearing in the pro-Sharif media. Imran after initial denials had to own up to the paternity of the girl.
Nisar while accusing Imran of being a tax evader has hinted at revealing details about his person. The leader of the opposition in the National Assembly claiming to be a classmate of the PTI chief has threatened that he will go viral if Imran does not stop attacking the Sharifs.
Meanwhile, Zardari and his cohorts are laughing all the way to the bank. In their view Imran is cutting into the vote bank of the Sharifs in Punjab and the PML-N is feeling the heat.
The PML-N and the PTI going to town against each other suits the ruling party fine. The more they castigate each other, the more difficult it will be for them to form an alliance or an understanding after the elections.
Imran firmly believes on the basis of his successful rallies and support of the youth that he will sweep the next elections. Hence, he feels that he does not need to go into a coalition with any of the mainstream parties, post elections.
Judging by the ground realities, neither the PTI nor the PML-N seems to be in a position to sweep the next elections. Imran who claims to be an agent of change rather than merely being a third alternative has vowed to sit in the opposition if he is unable to eke out a majority. He is loath to form a coalition ‘with the corrupt elements.’
Nawaz Sharif realistically speaking cannot expect a repeat of the heavy mandate he got in the 1997 elections. Imran is not so sure either about his electoral appeal. If he were, why would he be pulling electables from other parties?
The most likely scenario in the next general elections is a fragmented mandate with no party on its own being in a position to form a government. Hence if the future is a coalition government, why take things to a point-of-no-return? The Zardari-led PPP learnt this lesson post-2008 and have successfully played coalition politics to their advantage. The PTI and PML-N will learn this the hard way.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today