Tensions over competing claims in the South China Sea could escalate into conflict, with an arms build-up among rival nations raising the temperature, an international think tank warned Tuesday.
Prospects of solving the disputes “seem to be diminishing” after a recent failure by the 10-nation ASEAN grouping to hammer out a “code of conduct” that would govern actions in the sea, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said.
“Without a consensus on a resolution mechanism, tensions in the South China Sea can easily spill over into armed conflict,” warned Paul Quinn-Judge, the ICG’s program director for Asia.
“As long as ASEAN fails to produce a cohesive South China Sea policy, a binding set of rules on the handling of disputed claims cannot be enforced.”
China claims sovereignty over nearly all of the sea, which is believed to hold vast amounts of oil and gas, is one of the region’s most important fishing grounds and is home to shipping lanes that are vital to global trade.
The Philippines and fellow Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam, as well as Taiwan, claim parts of the sea.
The rival claims have for decades made the area one of the region’s potential military flashpoints, with Vietnam and China engaging in sea conflicts in 1974 and 1998 that left dozens of military personnel dead.
