Has there been a policy error? Have we finally given up on our flawed Afghan policy (after it failed to deliver what we planned to achieve?) The address by PM Gilani at the 6th Convocation Ceremony of National Defence University(NDU) is important not only for its contents but for the choice of the venue where it is delivered. Most beneficiaries of the NDU will be handling high profile appointments at least to regulate and run the military strategy drawn from the ‘Renewed Afghan Policy’. At the core of the renewed Afghan Policy are three important factors spelled out by PM in his speech: the solution to Afghanistan will come from within Afghanistan; Kabul is the most important capital for us in the world; and a peaceful, stable and sovereign Afghanistan is an absolute necessity for Pakistan”.
Across the border on Afghan side, the world led by Americans is planning an orderly retreat and a respectable exit. The Afghanistan that they will leave behind will have 250000 trained Afghan Army, 20000 US troops(battle enablers) and 2000 NATO trainers. Besides this, the US will provide the Afghan Army close air support, logistical backup and air surveillance. The world will not abandon Afghanistan and will provide annually $ 3.6 billion for supporting ANSF(Afghan National Security Force). Afghanistan may not have an active/operational air force but it surely will have trained army mandated and trained to guard and defend its frontiers.
On our Afghan border, the threat is not only from within but also from without. Will this threat diminish after the Americans leave in 2014? Most likely not. Will the world witness November 1995 like Taliban’s self-styled blitzkrieg when hundreds of Toyota Helix with Taliban personnel mounted on top advanced like German Panzer Division towards Kabul. Not now, not after US predators, drones are regularly patrolling AfPak skies. Cyber warfare together with satellite and drones has technically altered the balance in favour of those who rule the skies. The US is spending more money training the ‘drone controllers’ then training conventional aircraft pilots. This is bad news for the Taliban. But the good news for Taliban sympathisers (and it is hoped that government of Pakistan is not amongst them) is that obscurantist centres will continue to churn out Taliban by the hundreds so there never will be dearth of ‘paradise seekers’ drawing attention of American drones.
So is there going to be a Taliban’s likely resurgence after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan? Not now, not after Pakistan draws away from its policy of supporting Taliban in pursuance of a flawed Afghan policy built around gaining strategic depth that has taken us no where. Pakistan will have to help Afghanistan achieve peace and stability and for that Pakistan army should be looking at further and increased military engagement/involvement on the western frontier.
The future of Taliban’s and their likely resurgence looks bleak. ANA(Afghan National Army) while confronting the Taliban’s may fall apart like a pack of cards when confronting the Taliban in isolated battles but to defeat ANA the Taliban will have to lay a siege of Kabul and to do that they will have to get there first. I see no ‘Toyota Blitzkrieg’ like the 90’s taking effect this time around. Neither will the volunteers in thousands from Darul-Aloom Haqania be able to move to the battle fronts ‘unnoticed’ this time.
PM Gilani has done well to spell out the core foundations of Pakistan’s Afghan policy. Will his government and the subsequent governments that follow be able to execute this policy through its most important instruments/tools i.e. the army and the intelligence agencies? Only time will tell.
MUHAMMAD ALI EHSAN
Karachi