The present democratically-elected governments in the center and provinces have whereas unveiled their annual budgets, the economic observers are convinced that the rulers have, in announcing the fiscal plans, deviated their financially-illiterate voters by juggling the numbers.
The budget documents for FY2012-13, which were made public by the PPP-led coalition government in the Sindh province on June 11 amid earsplitting slogans of “Long Live Bhutto”, can well be dubbed as misleading in terms of comparisons of the budgetary figures.
One of almost half a dozen budget books titling “Salient Features of Budget 2012-13” are well illustrated in this regard.
In the 27-page document the provincial Finance Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah has compared shrewdly the new budgetary estimates with previous figures that favour his politically-embattled government the most.
The learned finance minister, in the book under review, has used not a single criterion for comparing the FY13’s estimates with that of the FY12 or the revised ones.
Shah on one account has, at his convenience, compared the new budget estimates with that of the outgoing FY12 while in the very next head has claimed credit by getting more favoring sums through the comparison of FY13 figures with the revised budget estimates.
In unnoticing manner though, the finance minister, or the most-referred budget makers in the provincial bureaucracy, has done a great job for the Sindh government by increasing the volume of figures manifold in percentage terms.
For example, the Rs 577.98 billion total budget outlay has been compared with FY12’s estimates of Rs 457.54 billion, a comparison that shows a remarkable growth of 26 percent or over Rs 120.43 billion in the total budget outlay.
This 26 percent growth automatically reduces by around 10 percent to 16.9 percent or Rs 83.83 billion when the size of new budget is compared with the revised estimates for the outgoing FY12, which the analysts say is the actual position at the end of the fiscal year, June 2012.
A budget with a bigger outlay is, undoubtedly, something a political government would desire for on the eve of general elections, perceivably, due next year in March.
Those assuming this might be a yardstick for budgetary calculations by the provincial government would be surprised to see that the budget makers have compared figures for the new budgeted revenue expenditures, Rs 315.301 billion, with that of the revised estimates for FY12, Rs 309.458 billion.
This comparison has been made to show as if the otherwise cash-strapped provincial government’s current expenditures during FY13 would increase “marginally” by 1.8 percent or Rs 5.84 billion. But, if compared with last year’s (FY12) budget estimates, Rs 283.147 billion, one would find the government’s spending would climb by 11.3 percent or Rs 32.154 billion.
“(The) current revenue expenditure is projected at Rs 315.30 billion which is marginally (1.3 percent) higher than Rs 309.45 billion during CFY (current fiscal year),” reads the budget document.
Similarly, the provincial government has tried to take credit by showing comparative figures for the development allocations, not expenditures, of its five-year tenure with that of the previous governments during 1947-2007, but has forgot to bring details of non-development or current expenditures for the period in review.
“They change the yardstick and use the one which suits them the most,” viewed senior economist Shahid Hassan Siddiqui adding “the governments change the yardstick to change the figures”. This distortion of numbers, the economist warned, could be useful in obtaining figures that may be favorable but not realistic.
According to Siddiqui, the federal government had done the same in the new budget by giving misleading numbers about the exports growth. “They said during last two years the country’s exports are growing. This may be true for FY11 but not for FY12,” he added.
Khurram Schehzad, head of InvestCap Research, viewed the rulers were “playing around” with the budget figures to keep masses in the dark. “This is the revised estimates that tell you (at the year’s end) how realistic your budgeting was,” the analyst said.
To prove his point Khurram illustrated the budgetary figures for the volumes of federal government’s subsidies it had distributed during FY12. “The subsidies ballooned to Rs 500 billion against the budgetary allocation of Rs 150 billion,” he explained.
Other heads where the budget makers have juggled with the comparative numbers include that of the provincial receipts, federal receipts, “unprecedented” development outlay and others.
