As analogies go, the one that calls the Pak-US relationship a bad marriage is a pretty good one. There’s the tether that prevents either side from unilaterally cutting things clean. Then there is the knowledge of the other side’s weaknesses that has come from years of familiarity; knowledge of raw nerves and how to twist the knife when you’re out to do some damage.
The US is the world’s sole superpower. Apart from the sheer military prowess, it is also a large giver of aid to Pakistan. Pakistan’s leverage stems from its unique geographical position and the fact that the Pakistani deep state’s relationship with power players in the chaotic Afghan buzkashi, nurtured over years of engagement (or interference, take your pick.)
But the mistake that Pakistani defence analysts and their handlers make is thinking the aforementioned set of leverages are an equation. They are not. It is an inequality. Even if Pakistan, when it comes to its influence, puts the pedal to the metal, it cannot quite do what it wants. The maximum that can be achieved would be the continuation of the status quo. However, if as a result of this attitude by the Pakistani state, the Americans were to merely turn up the heat by several notches, the results would be quite disastrous for Pakistan.
The Obama administration has reportedly approved the expansion of the drone programme in Pakistan. Who knows whether this expansion is going to work its way up to hot aerial pursuit or maybe even American feet on the ground. By what stretch of the imagination would the Pakistani state be able to reply to these incursions into the tribal areas or, God forbid, deeper within Pakistan?
Those hopeless romantics within the country who nurse hopes of a David vs Goliath, or, perhaps, a Karbala-inspired noble defeat, would do well to realise that the world over, Pakistan is being viewed, not as the righteous underdog but as an errant entity that does not play according to the rules of the game. That says one thing and does another. It’s a lose-lose. We’ll lose any confrontation in physical terms and our claim to the moral high ground makes sense only to us.
The Pakistani defence establishment’s need to reorient itself has never been more stark. The visiting high-ranking US defence department official has been reportedly given a cold shoulder. We’re up the creek without a paddle. And we’re insisting we can afford further reckless behaviour.
