Who will rule Pakistan?

Dysfunction, apparently

The decision of the Speaker of the National Assembly on May 24 that the judgment of the Supreme Court does not create the basis for disqualification of the prime minister has saved him from being disqualified as the member of the National Assembly. However, given the ongoing confrontation between the major political parties the PML(N) has decided to challenge the speaker’s ruling in the Supreme Court. This will reopen the disqualification case against the prime minister, giving an opportunity to the Supreme Court to be more categorical in disqualifying him, causing the collapse of the federal cabinet.

The Supreme Court has the power to interpret the constitution. It may succeed against the civilian government in narrow legal and constitutional sense. However, the current federal government has a decisive edge in the political domain. As the federal coalition created by President Asif Ali Zardari remains intact, the disqualification of the prime minister, if the Supreme Court decides to do that, would not shift the locus of power. The PPP-led coalition can bring forward another leader of their choice as the prime minister who will carry on with the legacy of Yousaf Raza Gilani.

The legal experts are debating the merits and demerits of the Supreme Court judgment and what the Court can do after the ruling of the Speaker of the National Assembly. This debates fits into the existing political polarisation. As a matter of fact, the political fallout of the judgment has accentuated political divisions. The PPP and its allies and supporters are unhappy over the judgment and think that the Supreme Court could not insist on writing a letter to the Swiss authorities because of the presidential immunity laid down in Article 248 (2) of the Constitution. Had the Supreme Court not been protected by the contempt of court law, this criticism would have been sharper than what we read and hear now-a-days.

The opposition parties and others are projecting themselves as the champions of independent judiciary and that the judgment of the Supreme Court should be implemented fully, implying that Prime Minister Gilani is automatically disqualified and that he could not stay on as the prime minister. The legal community is also divided on the same line.

What matters most is the political agenda. As it is not possible for the opposition, especially the PMLN, to remove the federal government through a vote-of-no-confidence in the National Assembly because it does not have the required parliamentary support, it views the Supreme Court’s judicial activism as an opportunity to pursue its political agenda. If the Army removes the Gilani-Zardari government, the opposition will be willing to welcome it provided such a removal opens the way for their assumption of power within a couple of months. If they realize that any removal of government by the judiciary or the military results in denial of power to them for the next couple of years they will oppose such a change.

The federal government led by Yousaf Raza Gilani has so far managed to survive different pressures from the military, superior judiciary and the opposition since October-November 2011. It was in November-December 2011 that some political analysts talked about the collapse of the federal government in weeks because in their view either the Supreme Court’s pressure would cause the collapse of the federal government or the military would do that or both would join to get rid of the prime minister.

A civil-military confrontation broke out on the memo issue, and by the end of December, the Supreme Court appointed a special commission to inquire into the memo issue. When in January 2012 the defence secretary, a retired Lt-General, was removed by the Prime Minister, many analysts thought that the federal government had reached the end of the road and that the military would knock it out. This did not happen.

The federal coalition was able to take part in the Senate elections in March and the PPP and its allies improved their position in the upper house. Now, only one item of the federal government’s current agenda is left, that is, the national budget, that will be presented in the first week of June. Though the PML(N) will bitterly oppose it, the federal government will have no serious problem in getting the budget approved because the ruling coalition is expected to stick together.

Any move by the opposition to challenge the decision of the speaker in the High Court or the Supreme Court is not going to be settled before the approval of the national budget because the federal government will contest such a move in the court of law.

Once the budget is approved, the federal government can review the situation to decide the timing of the next general elections, i.e. before the end of this year or in the second quarter of 2013. Once the general elections are announced the constitutional battle may continue as an academic exercise but it will lose political significance.

The most serious challenge for the federal coalition is not the threat of disqualification of the prime minister but the faltering economy and growing internal disorder. The new budget is likely to run into serious problems within six months if the government is unable to obtain international financial support that depends on reopening of NATO supply line though Pakistan.

The military authorities appear to be in favour of resuming the supply of NATO goods through Pakistan. But, the civilian government and the military lack the courage to say this in categorical terms because their own policies strengthened anti-Americanism and pro-Taliban sentiments in Pakistan to such an extent that both have become hostage to their own policies. Economic crisis is coupled with increased internal disorder and violence that is now spreading to the areas that were generally stable.

The PPP should hold the general elections not later than December, that is, before the economy starts unravelling. The opposition may be happy that the problems of the federal government are increasing. What the government and the opposition do not realise that the current polarisation, faltering economy and growing internal insecurity are pushing the country towards internal chaos. Pakistan is becoming a dysfunctional state. A large part of its territory will be ruled by competing local power brokers, gun wielders and chaos rather than by a civilian government or a government that meets the criterion set up by the military or the Supreme Court.

The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.