2013: Elections are coming

Let’s put on our pundit hats…for national interest, of course

There was a time not too long ago when a lot of people, including even the most die-hard haters of Zia and his spiritual heirs, couldn’t figure out the good cop-bad cop game played by Nawaz and Shahbaz. This is despite the fact that this game was pioneered and played to great effect by Zardari and Gilani. For a time, Sharif brothers too pulled it off beautifully. To the extent that the tweeples (almost all of whom are liberals) – of all people – started praising N league for Nawaz’s anti-establishment stance. This anti-establishment facade suffered its first major blow after Memogate, when Nawaz rushed to the Supreme Court like a toddler does towards candy. The second blow followed soon after, with the N-league’s “isteefa do” campaign immediately after Gilani was convicted (when even Imran Khan was willing to concede Gilani’s right of appeal).

I too plead guilty to believing – for a short time – that he had evolved into a great statesman after his views about India in his address to SAFMA officials, but he thoroughly disappointed me thereafter. I believe he foresees the hurdles he would face after (and before) coming to power from the Ghairat Brigade if he takes decisions that every democrat considers best for the country. Let’s examine what chances there are of that eventuality (Nawaz coming to power) after the coming general elections:

Keeping Pakistani history in perspective, the situation at the moment is very interesting. The party ruling the Punjab is in opposition while all the other relevant parties in the “smaller” provinces constitute the government in Islamabad; and for this reason, for the first time they are in command too. See for yourself the hours of loadshedding each province has to bear. Punjab suffers from it the most. The reason given by the other provinces is that Punjab produces far too little electricity as compared to what it consumes. Which is absolutely right but in this country, who cares what is right! The point is that for the first time smaller provinces are not really letting Punjab have the best of everything. This is something we have never witnessed before.

PPP spent years mourning the loss of Punjab, and Benazir expended great time and energy to win it back because the Punjab has always been perceived to lead to power in Islamabad. N-League also became a “national” party mainly due to its power in Punjab. Zardari has been the first person who actually came up with the idea of isolating Punjab. While IK looks determined in putting a dent in N in Punjab (and perhaps to some extent to PPP too), this again causes no worry to Zardari since he knows he can form a government without Punjab, letting different parties divide the booty so to speak. All this is with due regard to the seats Q will take, mainly due to seat adjustment.

There are predictions of IK putting a major dent in ANP’s votebank in KP. I would be surprised if that happened, because ANP have seen power after a long time and they have promoted the Bacha Khan romance massively. Secondly, the most likely scenario is that it will be the anti-ANP votes that will split between JI and PTI, keeping JUI’s share untouched. Even if some young followers of ANP do vote for IK, the small number is most likely to make no difference as far as the national assembly is concerned.

Ironically, the ongoing NATO supply line fiasco might also go in favour of PPP since it is trying to patch up with the US despite the fear of going against public demand (read sloganeering) in the election year; because the military is desperate to get onboard with US as soon as possible. All the political parties and Difa-e-Pakistan jokers are playing politics on it, except Imran Khan, who went away to England. It is very important in this country to be on good terms with the army in the election year.

The election commission most probably will sanitise the voters list before elections but if they fail to do so, the fake votes might not be cast against the PPP for a change. Also, for obvious reasons, the establishment will love to have a coalition government like the one we have now. While this coalition between parties from all provinces was not the establishment’s idea and was a result of Zardari’s all-inclusive-and-forgiving politics, this kind of formula suits the establishment just fine. After all, happiness and contentment on the part of the smaller provinces cannot be a bad thing for national interest, can it now?

The PPP won fewer seats than it was expected to last time. With Benazir Income Support Programme and other initiatives like these they have secured their areas of support. Result of by-elections is another indicator. Still, considering the incumbency factor, and with all the bad governance and corruption charges; even if they lose 20 to 25 seats in the next elections, they can successfully form the next government. We might see a stronger federal cabinet next time around; don’t be shocked if you see Nawaz or even Imran sitting in the coalition government, all in the national interest of course.

The writer is a member of the band Beygairat Brigade.