Will it get a foothold?
Mian Nawaz Sharif’s overtures in Sindh are unlikely to weaken the PPP’s grip on its traditional stronghold despite its overall bad performance and colossal failures. The PML(N) has been unable to create a niche for itself in the province because its leadership did not try to understand the real problems of Sindh.
The PML(N) looks for electable candidates when it comes to making preparations for the elections. These are supposed to be people with sufficient financial clout and muscle power. The rural elite are chosen because they have the means and the technical knowhow to fight the elections. They can also bring their dependents, tenants and servants to public gatherings. Those among the Sindhi electables who dislike the PPP need the protective umbrella of another mainstream party to deter a vengeful provincial government from highhandedness. What the feudal lords want is the tag of a party seen to be the next in power. Unlike the nationalists, they do not raise disturbing political issues once they have been accommodated and tickets assured for their group members. What is more, they prefer to cut secret deals to ward off any possible embarrassment.
Most of the traditional Sindhi politicians are hedging their bets. They are keenly watching the tripartite political contest to determine which one of the parties has the best chances to win. The PML(N), therefore, has so far succeeded in gathering around it no more than a dozen presentable faces. How many of them are able to win their seats remains to be seen.
Like their Punjabi counterparts, the Sindhi feudal lords are a force of the status quo. Even if the PML(N) comes to power with their support, it will fail to change the social conditions in Sindh. A chance to promote inter-provincial harmony would thus be lost and misunderstandings will multiply.
The PML(N) has been in contact with the Sindhi nationalist and progressive parties also. Unable so far to win any seats, these pressure groups nevertheless have street power that the PPP has mostly lost. Unlike Sindhi feudal lords, they insist on a prior agreement on the provinces’ rights.
Despite serious complaints against Punjab, Sindh remains by and large wedded to mainstream politics. The nationalists are critical of the treatment meted out to Sindh during the tenure of the PML(N) but are unhappy with the performance of the PPP also. In order not want to be left at the mercy of the PPP, they would like to bargain with the PML(N) which rules Punjab. The nationalists think that a Punjabi politician is better placed to provide Sindh a modicum of relief. The PPP can afford to ignore the demands of the people of Sind and still win the elections. The PML(N) cannot. Nawaz’s 1999 water distribution formula has flaws, they argue, but concede that the PPP government didn’t have the guts to get even this implemented. It is also understood that an alliance with a mainstream party would put them in a better position to overcome the deficiencies of the electoral politics and counter the MQM machinations to turn Sindhis into a minority in their own ancestral homeland.
An alliance with the nationalists will help the PML(N) develop a sound and sustainable base in Sindh. But for this, the party will have to understand what Sindh really wants. As things stand even the agenda of the moderate Sindhi nationalists is beyond the comprehension of Mian Nawaza Sharif’s team.
What is likely to give Nawaz unease is that none of the nationalists will be content with secret understandings. Whatever agreements are reached will have to be clearly spelt out and defended in Punjab.
There are at least two clear cut red lines Nawaz will be required to respect. First, no talk of the division of Sindh whatsoever. While Nawaz concedes this, he will have to counter the MQM proxies in Punjab who off and on issue statements in support of a Mohajir province. Second, no to the Kalabagh dam. Instead of going for large water reservoirs, Nawaz will have to commit himself to the development of the Thar coal project which will not only reduce the gap in power production but also generate jobs in Sindh.
Nawaz will have to commit himself to the further extension of provincial autonomy. He could do that without much thinking. He is advised, however, to try to understand how provincial autonomy is being defined in Sindh today to be able to talk to the Balochi nationalists tomorrow. Acceptance of natural resources as the provinces’ property is the first but by no means the last item on the unfinished agenda of the extension of provincial autonomy.
The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.
good analysis. This author has more nuanced and incisive approach than many popular writers who write nothing but worn-out hackneyed rhetoric, e.g. Talat Hussain.
I was really sorry to read this article. The writer was unable to tell his readers that during the two tenures of Nawaz Sharif as PM, he did not launch any mega development project in Sindh. On the contrary, Nawaz Sharif abandoned the mega projects launched by Benazir Bhutto in Sindh like gigantic Thar Coal project, Keti Bunder project and setting up Power Houses there.
The socalled Water Accord – 1991 was made during his tenure. His "Zalim" chief minister Jam Sadiq Ali got it signed from Sindh irrigation officers forcibly to please his Punjabi Master Nawaz Sharif, resulting Punjab is not implementing it after signing the Accord 22 years and not releasing agreed limited water downstream Kotri. Consequently Indus delta is on verge of death and people living in area Kotri downstream and Arabian Sea i.e. 145 kilometers about 2.6 million people are dying from thirst and hunger despite they are human beings, Pakistanis, Muslims. What happended if they are Sindhis and not Punjabis?
Nawaz Sharif's policies were based on "Punjabi chauvinism" during his two tenures. But the writer has deliberately missed the above points or he is so simple he did not know these points.
Nawaz has very smartly taken a firm position on division of Sindh which will surely appeal Sindhis… In my opinion he can take advantage of PPP failure in Sindh but for that he will have to work a lot to spread his message which he has just started!
First of all, Nawaz Sharif must have moral courage to tender apology for victmizing Sindhis during his two tenures as PM.
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