The National Accounts Committee (NAC) will be meeting again on Tuesday to finalise the economic data for the current fiscal year on the basis of the old base of 1999-2000, as the earlier data finalised by the committee on the basis of new base year of 2005-06 was rejected by the government as it had downward projected the GDP growth rate at 3.2 percent from the official claims of 4 percent for the current fiscal year.
An official source said that the data on the basis on old base year was being finalised and will be submitted for the consideration of NAC on Tuesday. The government anticipates that the GDP based on existing system of national account on base year of 1999-2000 will be around 4 percent.
For the first time in country’s history, the government on May 4 nullified the economic data finalised by the highest forum, NAC on April 26 and ordered the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) to reassess the economic figures on the basis on the old base of 1999-2000.
NAC on April 26 approved GDP growth figure of 3.2 percent on the basis of market price after rebasing of GDP by fixing 2005-06 as base year. NAC, after rebasing, had pulled out about Rs 2200-2500 billion from size of economy owing to which GDP size shrank to Rs 18.50 trillion from Rs 21 trillion mainly because of the contraction of manufacturing, services and financial and insurance sectors.
The governing council of PBS has refused to validate the re-writing of economic history of the country from 2005-06 onward saying PBS has taken the major initiative in violation of the laid down procedure. Under the law, PBS was bound to take the approval from the council, but its secretary did not take the governing council into confidence prior to taking the major and important initiative of rebasing the economy.
From the available data of last eight to nine months, NAC had estimated the provisional growth of 3.2 percent for the current fiscal year, as compared to growth of 3 percent last fiscal year. The increase has been made possible by growth in agriculture sector by 3.6 percent, while industrial sector grew by 3.4 percent and services sector by 2.1 percent. The government has earlier projected the GDP growth of 4.2 percent but later on revised it to 3.6 percent for the current fiscal year.
In the agriculture sector the crops registered an increase of 3 percent, livestock 4.1 percent, forestry 4.1 percent and fishing 1.8 percent. The mining and quarrying category in industrial sector increased by 1.7 percent, manufacturing 2.4 percent, construction 2.8 percent and energy by 14.3 percent. In the services sector, transport and communication increased by 3.2 percent, wholesale and retail trade 2.1 percent, financial and insurance declined by 11 percent, ownership and dwellings 3.4 percent, public administration and defence by 3.4 percent, and social and public services by 3.4 percent. About the decline in financial and insurance, PBS explained that it was calculated on constant term but on current prices they figure might be in positive. This was main issue of concern for the Ministry of Finance which asked PBS to recalculate growth in financial and insurance sector.
The members of the governing council raised many concerns regarding the methodology, the quality of primary data base on various sectors of the economy, analytical framework and the restructuring steps taken by PBS to adjust the GDP of the past 10 years. It directed the Statistics Division to provide the National Accounts on the old base as well as to facilitate comparison with the new base.