The summer movies that will be huge and the ones that could flop

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As the summer flicks start rolling out and ‘The Avengers’ does record-breaking business worldwide, trade analysts are crunching the numbers for every big-budget schlockfest coming this summer, and of all the celebrities involved, from Ri-Ri to Johnny, Cruise to Charlize, Will Smith and Josh Brolin, to anticipate which movies not the least likely to succeed. A lot of industry watchers do not have high expectations for, say, a certain Cameron Diaz pregnancy giggler, or ‘Sparkle’, which, despite the final film appearance by Whitney Houston, analysts say looks to be ‘Glitter’ of 2012. But the movie most likely to face problems? None of the above, says Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations. “‘Total Recall’ will have the toughest time making back its budget,” Bock says. “It reportedly cost upwards of $200 million and opens head-to-head against ‘The Bourne Legacy’, which is widely expected to be a hit, even without Matt Damon. “Besides, everyone in Hollywood knows,” he says, that Colin Farrell doesn’t exactly light up the box office when he headlines a film. That’s right: Even ‘Battleship’, the movie based on a game and which stars Rihanna, is expected to fare better dollar for investment dollar, Bock says. As for ‘Dark Shadow’s, whose trailer has already sparked decidedly mixed reactions, fret not for Johnny Depp. “‘Dark Shadows’ and ‘Rock of Ages’ (with Tom Cruise), while tough sells, have huge names attached and should do relatively well,” he says. Maybe Colin Farrell needs to do another vampire movie.