History, they say, is a useful gauge to understand both the present and indeed the future, meticulously. While this argument has a not-so-strong flipside as well, the whole ‘understand the present from the history’ argument fits like a tailor-made glove on the European realm. The European Union traces the origin of its formulation, on the basic concept of continental unity – along the lines of USA – and on ensuring that none of its countries feels left out or hard done by. The 36-month European debt crisis is a living mockery on these aforementioned ideals and of course on the existence of the EU. And while the EU “think tank” continues to mull over solutions, which have been imposed on the 17 countries in the eurozone, the two elections over this weekend would serve as the crystal ball which would divulge the voters’ stance on the debt-crisis resolution.
On the French front, François Hollande is set to win the elections with his antagonism with regards to Angela Merkel’s austerity policies being a well known fact. Hollande’s election would throw the proverbial spanner into the works in the whole debt debate, and could mean that the strong German-French bond of the “Merkozy” era takes a nosedive. The Merkozy solution to the crisis touted more cost-cutting as the means of lowering debt and in turn reassuring markets. Hollande on the other hand is peddling “government-sponsored stimulus” as his go-to play to cater to the growth needs.
On the Greek Front – wherein the crisis traces its nadir from – Panhellenic Socialist Movement and New Democracy are feeling the heat of mass dissent. The “lesser” parties have fanned the embers of the popular discontent on the previous Greek government’s constant lies about the excessive government debt – which in turn laid the foundation of the whole eurocrisis. And now as new parties start to gather momentum in Greece, their success in these elections could mean a change of direction in the Greek policy, which in turn would have its ramifications for Europe as a whole.
These elections – especially the ones in France – also have repercussions for international diplomacy with France being a nuclear-armed country and having a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Sarkozy was always an American chum and he followed the US lead on Iran, Afghanistan, Syria and of course in the whole Libyan episode. Hollande, au contraire, wants French troops in Afghanistan back in the country, and is ostensibly less keen on military action and meddling in the matters of other nations.
There is also a massive disparity in the tax policy between Hollande and Sarkozy. Hollande wants the rich to pay 75 percent in income taxes, and is eying upping the ante of profit-distribution companies as well. This when juxtaposed with Sarkozy’s “let’s reduce the overall tax burden” stratagem sounds like the more fitting line of action. And then there is the immigration debate as well, with Hollande not sounding particularly perturbed by the current legal immigration level – which again, tilts matters in his favour.
Hollande’s victory coupled with the change in status quo in Greece would have aftereffects on the whole eurozone, as the continent braces itself for what indubitably be defining electoral results, in every sense of the term.
