This matter about the coalition support fund and resumption of nato supplies is settled easily enough. But sadly clarity of purpose has been a rarity on both sides. For the Pakistanis – wasn’t our geo-strategic and political position the only reason the “with u or without us” dilemma was shoved down our throats? And strange that we should have to remind one of this, but a crucial outside supply line into Afghanistan, indicative of faulty planning bordering on fatal, is ‘geo’ and ‘strategic’ and ‘political’ and all that. And since whatever services we provide must beckon appropriate reciprocity, there’s just the matter of calculating the opportunity cost for Pakistan, and gates opened if at all it is fulfilled. No good losing sight of purpose even if radical division clogs the legislature.
For the Americans – Afghanistan is coming to a close, and whichever position they are in by ’14, it will be bad considering the time, effort, men, material and finances put into the long war. Perhaps the only thing that can confound the adventure still is supply bottlenecks just as they begin unwinding. The alternate route, through Russia and Central Asia, is a hell-of-a lot more expensive (the Pakistan route is already at a marked premium above market value), and cannot be relied on. If it takes a soft apology, so be it. It’ll still be a hell-of-a-lot better than having supplies cut and a stone faced withdrawal turned into a frantic retreat, with its obvious political spillover.
It’s more an American decision than a Pakistani one really. But Washington will not have the luxury of time, no dilly-dallying till the elections. There’s another spring offensive underway, the pattern again showing upgraded fighting power after the usual winter quiet, when the severe Himalayan winter forces all fighting to cease in Afghanistan since time immemorial. It’s always the bunch that postures better when the previous summer’s endgame is analysed. Unfortunately, the militants have regrouped better each time, and the US and Pakistan have fallen apart more and more with time. There lies the fine line between success and failure in Afghanistan.