current financial year, the National Accounts Committee (NAC) has made a provisional estimate of 3.2 percent growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) for the current fiscal year.
Briefing reporters after the meeting on Thursday, Secretary Statistics Division Sohail Ahmad said that from the available data of last eight to nine months, the provisional growth is estimated 3.2 percent for the current fiscal year, as compared to growth of 3 percent last fiscal year. The increase has been made possible by growth in agriculture sector by 3.6 percent, while industrial sector grew by 3.4 percent and services sector by 2.1 percent. The government has earlier projected the GDP growth of 4.2 percent but later on revised it to 3.6 percent for the current fiscal year.
He said for assessing the economy for the current fiscal year, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) also revised the base year from 1999-2000 to 2005-2006. He said revision exercise is common in every country after 5 to 10 years. The revised data GDP and overall economic growth since 2005-06 did not change much as compared to the old data base. The revision shows that agriculture share in GDP has increased from 24.1 percent to 24.7 percent, industrial sector increased from 21.7 percent to 22 percent while services sector share increased from 47.2 percent to 53.1 percent. Overall GDP at market prices for the new base year has slightly decreased by 0.4 percent. The average annual growth rate between 2005-06 and 2010-11 has decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent.
Sohail said that the revision was necessary and brought significant improvements but did not rewrite the economic history of the country. He said that the rebasing was done in a very professional manner and international best practices were adopted. Experts from German international development agency, GIZ closely monitored the implementation process. After changing the base year, GDP size at cost and price is assessed Rs 9113.2 billion this fiscal year with per capita income of Rs 53,137. The Planning Commission has assessed the population at 178.9 million as compared to 175.3 million last year.
In the agriculture sector the crops registered an increase of 3 percent, livestock 4.1 percent, forestry 4.1 percent and fishing 1.8 percent. The mining and quarrying category in industrial sector increased by 1.7 percent, manufacturing 2.4 percent, construction 2.8 percent and energy by 14.3 percent. Explaining the reason for abnormal growth in electricity generation and distribution and gas distribution, Head of PBS Arif Cheema said that it was calculated on the basis on subsidy provided to the sector by the government. He said it is calculated in the same way internationally.
In the services sector, transport and communication increased by 3.2 percent, wholesale and retail trade 2.1 percent, financial and insurance declined by 11 percent, ownership and dwellings 3.4 percent, public administration and defence by 3.4 percent, and social and public services by 3.4 percent. About the decline in financial and insurance, Cheema explained that it was calculated on constant term but on current prices they figure might be in positive. PBS explained to the meeting that with the rebasing 2005-06, Pakistan will be focusing mainly on GDP instead of Gross National Product (GNP), which is outdated, and replaced by Gross National Income (GNI). International comparisons require application of internationally agreed classifications. The rebasing 2005-06 employs a national adaptation of United Nations, International Standard Industrial Classification of all activities (ISIC). The adaptation is called Pakistan Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC 2007). Switching to the modern classification implies to show the output and the value added of government units under the headings of the respective activities like public administration and defense, education, health social services. UN has already released an even more modern classification which in Pakistan has come into use with the census of manufacturing industries 2011, and which will be soon employed in national accounts.
At present, the national accounts in the country are calculated on annual basis, but when the rebasing 2005-06 is finalised then the annual time series will be quarterized and quarterly accounts will be launched. And PBS will in parallel enter into compilation of institutional sector accounts.
It’s 3.2 Doc, not 4.0
