Will the current Indo-Pak goodwill last?
Back in 1984, when Indian troops shocked the Pakistani nation by wresting control of the Siachen glacier, the president and COAS General Zia-ul-Haq expressed his utter surprise at the furore. Instead of expressing any remorse at his armed forces being caught unawares, he said, “What is the fuss all about? Not even a blade of grass grows there.”
That was more than a quarter of a century ago. Since then, more than 2000 troops on both sides of the divide in Siachen have lost their lives mostly not in combat but owing to extremely harsh terrain and weather conditions; Pakistani troops being buried in an avalanche is the latest in the series of battles the men have lost against the elements.
Despite a ceasefire holding since 2003, the longest running armed conflict between two regular armies in the twentieth century still rages on. The human and economic cost of sustaining the conflict cannot be overemphasised here.
The late Zia-ul-Haq’s erstwhile protégé Nawaz Sharif managed to make it first to Gayari amongst the politicians. After meeting the families of the victims, he urged Pakistan to take the first step to end the Siachen standoff. Only a section of the gung-ho media has taken Sharif to task for “suggesting to accept Indian hegemony”. No one else accused him of being a ghaddar (traitor).
These are signs of changing times. The most significant statement in this regard is that of the COAS General Kayani who has called for “peaceful coexistence” with India terming it vital for the welfare of the people of both the countries. Accompanying President Zardari during his visit to Siachen, Kayani surprised everyone by declaring that you cannot be spending on defence alone while forgetting about development.
Its detractors accuse the military of converting Pakistan into a national security state. It is generally perceived by the commentariat that he GHQ calls the shots on vital security and foreign policy issues. At this stage, it is too early to say to what extent General Kayani can walk the talk. However the military chief’s statement does reflect a change in priorities.
India has welcomed General Kayani’s remarks on resolving the Siachen issue and that resources be spent on development of the two countries. The Indian state minister for defence has acknowledged that deployment of troops in glacial heights have taken a heavy economic toll. Official sources in South Block have also welcomed Kayani’s remarks.
The cautious welcome by New Delhi should however be taken with a pinch of salt. General Kayani had spoken of all issues to be resolved in an atmosphere of peaceful coexistence. But the Indians it seems prefer the bonhomie to be limited to Siachen and that also on their terms.
It is not disclosing a state secret that Islamabad with its narrow economic base for long now has not been in a position to match India’s increasing military build up. Pakistan’s military budget has shrunk in real terms whereas India only recently announced a whopping 17 per cent increase in its military spending.
In order to justify its enormous defence spending, India cites China as the reason. It has just successfully test fired a new long-range nuclear missile, Agni V, capable of delivering a nuclear warhead anywhere in China. Recently, the Indian navy acquired a nuclear powered submarine from Russia to patrol the Indian Ocean.
It is obvious that India with its blue water navy, its modern air force fleet and its nuclear capable missiles has readily assumed the role of becoming the West and Russia’s cat paw against China that is increasingly being perceived as a burgeoning military power.
This is happening at a time when the Indian economy is slowing down. And despite ‘India shining’ on a fast growing elite and middle classes, there is a vast sea of humanity in India which is poorer than the poorest in Pakistan.
In this context, President Zardari’s recent ‘dargah diplomacy’ that took him to New Delhi for an impromptu summit with the Indian prime minister can only achieve limited results. India is more interested in opening trade, expanding economic ties and committing Pakistan to restrain non-state actors to perpetrate terrorism on its soil.
In this backdrop, nabbing Jamaat-ud-Daawa chief Hafiz Saeed, the alleged mastermind of the Mumbai attacks, and also bringing the planners of the 2008 carnage to book will remain New Delhi’s top priority. This is unlikely to happen .The foreign office spokesman in Islamabad has stated that the Jamaat-ud-Daawa chief had sought protection from the Lahore High Court following the announcement of a $10 million bounty on his head and, since Pakistan is a democracy, the courts will determine Hafiz Saeed’s fate.
Pakistan would like resolution of issues like Siachen and Sir Creek, which it feels, were decided long ago but India dithered subsequently. Defence secretaries of the two countries are due to meet soon in Islamabad to discuss Siachen on a date yet to be determined.
It is unlikely that New Delhi would agree to Pakistan’s proposal for redeployment of forces form Siachen. A unilateral redeployment as hinted by Nawaz Sharif has been ruled out by Pakistan.
After General Musharraf’s disastrous Kargil misadventure, New Delhi is even more unlikely to agree to vacate its strategic foothold on Siachen. It gives it a clear advantage over Pakistan no matter what the cost in human and economic terms.
Similarly, any meaningful progress on contentious issues like Kashmir and water disputes with India is also out of the question at this stage. Musharraf’s foreign minister Khursheed Kasuri claims with some credibility that the Kashmir issue was almost clinched through back channel diplomacy during the last year of Musharraf’s regime.
The present government has abandoned the back channel route to resolve the Kashmir Issue. And rightly so. Although relevant UN resolutions are no longer our mantra, back channel surreptitious deals cannot fly in a democracy.
The Economist commenting on the recent luncheon meeting between Zardari and Manmohan Singh has labelled the two leaders as the ‘two lame ducks’ unlikely to be re-elected. This makes it even more difficult and contentious to tackle the basic issues haunting the two South Asian neighbours since their inception.
In the meanwhile, fast track progress on trade and strengthening economic ties seem to be the way to reap peace dividends. However, the tenuous honeymoon of sorts can come to an abrupt end if there is another terrorist attack in India perceived to have been launched from our soil.
The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today