Media punditry has no relation to ground realities
There is this perception that our media has transformed Pakistan; that it has raised the political consciousness among the general public (which I somewhat agree with) and that it has changed the electoral dynamics of the country (I have my reasons for not agreeing with this). Imran Khan believed the theory and got even more convinced after a couple of successful jalsas in Lahore and Karachi. The self-proclaimed king-makers in the media received the first major blow when Jamshed Dasti won again from his constituency after he had been disqualified. Instead of learning from the experience, the king-makers chose that other unfortunate option – that of going bitter.
While Imran Khan is still trying to cash in on the opportunity created by the ‘new media’, many in the media itself have started questioning their own assertions after the recent by-elections, in which Musa Gilani not only won his seat but got over 90,000 votes in his constituency. We need to understand the voting trend in our region to know what it takes to change the electoral dynamics, and whether the corruption card really works.
India recently had elections in five of its states. The results in neither of them are surprising (or perhaps they are, depending on one’s expectations). UP’s importance can be gauged by its population (which is greater than Pakistan), and by the fact that they have provided India eight of their prime ministers. There is also this slogan ‘What UP thinks today, India will think tomorrow’. Rahul Gandhi remained with the poor throughout the election campaign. Slept in their houses, drank from their wells, had food on their plates and sported a beard for not having the time to shave. But the election results bore no fruit for Congress; instead it stood 4th. The traditionally popular Samajwadi Party took the lead followed by Bahujan Samaj Party, which was ruling UP before these elections, and the BJP alliance came in 3rd. Anna Hazare’s campaign against corruption, which some people believed to be a political campaign favouring Mayawati, failed and Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has been UP’s CM thrice before, won the elections regardless of all the corruption charges against him.
Perhaps we can more easily relate to India’s Punjab because we have one too (and no small Punjab, at that). In India, it is also referred to as the Badal state. Parkash Singh Badal, the chief minister, had Sukhbir Singh Badal, his son, as his deputy chief minister. His nephew was the finance minister before he launched his own party and his daughter in law was also a cabinet member. In his last tenure, Punjab went into a much more serious deficit than it used to before. In recent years, major drop of productivity has been observed in agriculture. Fifty lac out of the total population of around 2 crore and 75 lac are said to be unemployed. Apart from the other corruption charges, millions are alleged to have been made out of liquor shop licenses, when according to a UN report more than 60% of the population is either alcoholic or hooked on drugs. Captain Amarinder Singh flashed documented evidences of Badal’s corruption in his jalsas and other forums but that didn’t stop Badal from winning the elections again last month, with even more seats than the last time! His trick is believed to be subsidy on a few things and a small sum awarded to every bride as a wedding present.
In Bangladesh, the army came to power in 2007 and throughout 2007 and 2008 the military backed government’s slogan was to root out corruption and get rid of the two dynastic leaders of the AL and BNP. But as soon as the elections occurred in 2008, Hasina Wajid was back after winning the elections by record margins!
One example of a change in electoral trends, though, would be Lahore; it used to be the PPP’s bastion, which was then taken over by PML(N). But then again one has to realise that with unlimited resources because of ISI’s backing and spoon feeding, Nawaz, first as finance minister and then the CM, was for long periods in a position to award huge benefits to the industrial community and the dukaandaars in general. Even then, it took him many years to legitimately claim Lahore to be PML(N)’s very own backyard.
In our region, people have a very narrow approach of looking at things when it comes to elections. Therefore, while it is easy to give glad tidings of an imminent revolution-by-votes, it is much more difficult to see anything like that actually happening. By boycotting the by-elections, I believe even Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s and Javed Hashmi’s own seats are in danger, leave alone the future of PTI. One thing a politician can’t afford is to stay out of the system, letting others fill in the void. Giving this kind of opportunity to the government for a year is tantamount to a suicide-attempt as far as one’s political career is concerned. Any wonder then if both veteran politicians are pissed off at kuptaan?
The writer is a member of the band Beygairat Brigade.