Media punditry has no relation to ground realities
There is this perception that our media has transformed Pakistan; that it has raised the political consciousness among the general public (which I somewhat agree with) and that it has changed the electoral dynamics of the country (I have my reasons for not agreeing with this). Imran Khan believed the theory and got even more convinced after a couple of successful jalsas in Lahore and Karachi. The self-proclaimed king-makers in the media received the first major blow when Jamshed Dasti won again from his constituency after he had been disqualified. Instead of learning from the experience, the king-makers chose that other unfortunate option – that of going bitter.
While Imran Khan is still trying to cash in on the opportunity created by the ‘new media’, many in the media itself have started questioning their own assertions after the recent by-elections, in which Musa Gilani not only won his seat but got over 90,000 votes in his constituency. We need to understand the voting trend in our region to know what it takes to change the electoral dynamics, and whether the corruption card really works.
India recently had elections in five of its states. The results in neither of them are surprising (or perhaps they are, depending on one’s expectations). UP’s importance can be gauged by its population (which is greater than Pakistan), and by the fact that they have provided India eight of their prime ministers. There is also this slogan ‘What UP thinks today, India will think tomorrow’. Rahul Gandhi remained with the poor throughout the election campaign. Slept in their houses, drank from their wells, had food on their plates and sported a beard for not having the time to shave. But the election results bore no fruit for Congress; instead it stood 4th. The traditionally popular Samajwadi Party took the lead followed by Bahujan Samaj Party, which was ruling UP before these elections, and the BJP alliance came in 3rd. Anna Hazare’s campaign against corruption, which some people believed to be a political campaign favouring Mayawati, failed and Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has been UP’s CM thrice before, won the elections regardless of all the corruption charges against him.
Perhaps we can more easily relate to India’s Punjab because we have one too (and no small Punjab, at that). In India, it is also referred to as the Badal state. Parkash Singh Badal, the chief minister, had Sukhbir Singh Badal, his son, as his deputy chief minister. His nephew was the finance minister before he launched his own party and his daughter in law was also a cabinet member. In his last tenure, Punjab went into a much more serious deficit than it used to before. In recent years, major drop of productivity has been observed in agriculture. Fifty lac out of the total population of around 2 crore and 75 lac are said to be unemployed. Apart from the other corruption charges, millions are alleged to have been made out of liquor shop licenses, when according to a UN report more than 60% of the population is either alcoholic or hooked on drugs. Captain Amarinder Singh flashed documented evidences of Badal’s corruption in his jalsas and other forums but that didn’t stop Badal from winning the elections again last month, with even more seats than the last time! His trick is believed to be subsidy on a few things and a small sum awarded to every bride as a wedding present.
In Bangladesh, the army came to power in 2007 and throughout 2007 and 2008 the military backed government’s slogan was to root out corruption and get rid of the two dynastic leaders of the AL and BNP. But as soon as the elections occurred in 2008, Hasina Wajid was back after winning the elections by record margins!
One example of a change in electoral trends, though, would be Lahore; it used to be the PPP’s bastion, which was then taken over by PML(N). But then again one has to realise that with unlimited resources because of ISI’s backing and spoon feeding, Nawaz, first as finance minister and then the CM, was for long periods in a position to award huge benefits to the industrial community and the dukaandaars in general. Even then, it took him many years to legitimately claim Lahore to be PML(N)’s very own backyard.
In our region, people have a very narrow approach of looking at things when it comes to elections. Therefore, while it is easy to give glad tidings of an imminent revolution-by-votes, it is much more difficult to see anything like that actually happening. By boycotting the by-elections, I believe even Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s and Javed Hashmi’s own seats are in danger, leave alone the future of PTI. One thing a politician can’t afford is to stay out of the system, letting others fill in the void. Giving this kind of opportunity to the government for a year is tantamount to a suicide-attempt as far as one’s political career is concerned. Any wonder then if both veteran politicians are pissed off at kuptaan?
The writer is a member of the band Beygairat Brigade.
ali, the biggest problem of Pakistan is not all those poor masses whose vote is stolen through the SP+Patwari+SHO be it done under some Khaki regime or such as it was done by your "prophet, ZA Bhutto back in 1976 election!! The problem is "YOU" one whose mind has been hypnotized to such as extent by ur mom & dad's euphoria of the 70s rise of Bhutto!! You just give a damn to how SIngapore, S.Korea or Malaysia have turned themselves into 1st world respectable nations! You give a damn that the last four years have remained the worst in our nation's history! You only care about the Bhutto clan! May God (or whatever you call Him) show you the path that will help Pakistan become a prosperous, modern state just like Turkey! Not a Jiala cult!!
I like your response, aloneinlonelyplanet. I am one of Ali's parents, his dad. The other, his mom is going to vote for IK. Tho not a jiyala, my vote will go for PPP. The justification: There r only two political forces in the country, the PPP and all those who r anti PPP, including the Khakis who have all admitted to foul practices to keep PPP out of every election.
And let's not talk of prophets, The politicians, more so the bearded ones r worst of even the diabolical sinners of these times.
why r u supporting to PPP? any good reason?
I gave u the reason. If everybody is against one party, I go for the underdog. But don't worry too much. I don't support PPP. One vote of mine is not going to turn the tables, Salman.
It feels nice to see that a father OFTEN coming to rescue his progeny. 🙂
But i'll advice you to let your son stand on his own feet now (my guess is that he doesn't like your "help" too but is too polite to tell you) and not provide unnecessary oppurtunities to trolls to abuse you. 🙂
Good advice Usama. If my son doesn't like it, he can lump it, as should the trolls. After all, I am an individual too and have a right to my opinions. He is his own man and has been so since very early in life. He doesn't need my support and neither do I his. I can fend for myself should a shove turn to a push and all abusers beware: I have a very sharp and caustic tongue.
Always its only jialas who lay down thier lives for high human values. We belive in collective good not individual good.
Tum fatwagar ho shaaun kay mansour kay maani kia jano
Tum tareekay kay palau noor kay maani kia jano
This was in response to aloneinlonelyplanet
We love u Ali Aftab Saeed
The Swiss banks need PPP/PML. They bring good business. As someone who works for a Swiss bank, i say to Pakistani people keep voting for these people-they bring us good business.
I agree with what aloneinlonelyplanet said.
If the peoples votes are not stolen, they have some kind of family affiliation with a certain political party and vote for umm maybe personal gain, I knw a lot of ppl who do this. The 70s are long gone we need to change our ways.
Very comprehensive and to the point analysis. In coming election the same result will come out.
It is difficult to face/accept realities. President Musharaf's devolution plan was to bring new leadership, what happened? Brothers, cousins, sons, sisters, nieces, of existing elite came up. People vote for candidates who are well connected with the local social structures, e.g. Thana, Katchery, Patwaris, etc. Political change in a democratic process is by nature time consuming. Only angels can fix Pakistan in 9 days!! When change happens, some lose, some win. It is not on to expect the winners to want to become losers. Everyone protects thier own interest. So how do we move forward slowly? By having rule of law, slowly!!
Dear aloneinlonelyplanet, your pseudonym is very amuzing& your comment is even more amusing. Instead of reflecting on Ali's sound arguement & incisive analysis, you took on his parents' assumed pro-Bhutto' bringing up of him. You actually seem to be lonely in a planet full of life, hussle & bustle. Otherwise how can you compare Singapore (a port city smaller than Lahore) with Pakistan; and Korea is a small and homogenous country, not diverse like Pakistan. If you're IK supporter, the good news is that he could become PM after next elections but in a coalition Govt. led by PPP -:). Ali well done, its a very good piece.
Last 4 years were the worst of Pakistan's history and credit goes to PPP and PML-N for putting up such a bad show when people needed them to be at their very best. But coming 5 years can be even worst because we might see their 2nd tier leadership in the form of Bilawal Bhutto, Hamza Shahbaz and Mousa Gilani, and we all can bet that these guys got even more potential for corruption than their fathers. So we need to do something and stop them, because 5 more years of Zardari or his son and Pakistan is sold. So the only option we have is to don't lose hope and keep striving for a change.
And PPP jiyalas, please open your mind and see that it's Zardari's PPP, not bhutto's anymore. So if you will vote for a dacoit and a murderer again just because of your affiliation with the party, you are not loyal to your country.
Pakistan is an anti hindu nation…..media is crap……
Islamic state of Pornistan (formerly known as pakistan) is 9th failed nation in the world according to an un report.
Does watching porn allowed in Islam, if not than why an Islamic nation tops the list?
Where has gone that Islamic brotherhood in Balochistan? Where has gone the Islamic brotherhood in PoK,where pakistani rangers is killing their own islamic brothers….
@albert: you are true brother, muslim killing muslim is not at all justified in Islam. Sunni killing shia is really a blood clot on Islam……..we must improve it….,
Pakistan is really a very poor country. Totally under the controll of terrorists, pakis are trying their level best to exist. News of bomb blast are heard daily in Pakistan. It’s now became routine in pakistan.
Arjun…v have become what v r by participating in America's war on terror. In any case u should b the last to taunt us for u r no peaceful haven. And what u lack now shall soon b supplied by way of violence by your new friend.
sir Arjun painted a right picture about present condition of pakistan….soon shall we listen that elections have been delayed for one year as per constitution and surely this move is going to deliver a fatal blow to IK's myth of revolution….and than the votes shall be casted to
Pakistani army wants to attack India but if it do so, it will loose pakistan to talibanis….
Pakistan will denounce its state as a country soon. Hehehe.
Pakistan will denounce its status as a country soon. Hehehe…..
Arjun, Shivam and Albert……what has what the three of u r saying, with the subject that is Election Dynamics?
You are going superb. Waiting for another nice piece. Keep it up!
Comments are closed.