The real and tragic failure in Afghanistan would be a return to the civil war that erupted after the Soviet Union withdrew after its foolhardy intervention. The ensuing struggle between the warlords led to the emergence of the Taliban and their violent conflict with the Northern Alliance for the control of the country that lasted till 911. Today the situation is somewhat different with the US and NATO still in Afghanistan but under enormous pressure to withdraw.
There is very little doubt that the prospects for any sort of decisive military victory in Afghanistan have all but disappeared. President Obama’s ‘surge’ and the counter insurgency strategy of General Petraeus may have helped but these have not led to the conclusion that was sought. The transformation of Afghanistan into a democracy has also not happened. The failings are too numerous to mention but there is consensus on two key issues: the capacity of the Afghan Security Forces is inadequate and the Afghan state has very little capacity for effective governance. This is the outcome after billions of dollars have been spent. The blame for these shortcomings cannot be placed on sanctuaries across the borders of Afghanistan.
So far there have been 96 US/NATO fatalities this year and of these 17 have been due to attacks by soldiers of the Afghan Security Forces on their trainers and allies. A string of unsavoury and despicable acts have inevitably led to this ‘green on blue’ confrontation and the overall environment of hate against the foreign military forces in Afghanistan and their allies. These incidents are well known; the so called ‘kill teams’ killing Afghans for sport, the cutting off of fingers for trophies, the urination by US Marines on Afghan corpses, the torture of prisoners, the night raids on Afghan homes and the massacre in Panjwai by a US soldier acting alone or in connivance with others. The hate that these incidents have spawned has led the Afghan President to demand an end to night raids, withdrawal of all civilian security contractors, Baghram prison to be under Afghan control and a speeding up of the exit from Afghanistan. He obviously could not remain silent as that would have made him complicit in all US/NATO actions in Afghan eyes – not a situation he would want to be in now or after 2014.
According to a survey, in the US almost 69 percent are not in favour of the US presence in Afghanistan. Obviously, the cost of the war in men and dollars has had an impact on domestic public opinion. There are large numbers of soldiers suffering from PTSD (post traumatic stress syndrome) and growing numbers of amputees because of IED attacks. A survey in Afghanistan has established that almost 82 percent want peace in spite of the fact that factions are arming themselves just in case Afghanistan descends into the chaos of a civil war post 2014 – worst case contingency planning. A civil war in Afghanistan after 2014 would be disastrous for Pakistan and not even the Taliban would want such an outcome.
With a reappraisal of its initial expectations the US has focused on developing Afghan capacity as rapidly as possible and, in tandem with that, a push for the peace process through reconciliation. This strategy has Afghan and Pakistani support – something that has to be ensured and made sustainable by addressing their concerns. Right now the talks are stalled because of the Taliban but there are indications that the process started in Qatar may pick up traction after the Taliban return to talks. A strategy that has night raids and drone attacks as its main components would make many enemies and deliver little. An accelerated exit without a successful peace process would make civil war a certainty. The endgame should be a planned exit timed for execution with the success of the peace process, the enhanced capacity of Afghan forces and government and a reset relationship with Pakistan.
Spearhead Research is a private centre for research and consultancy on security, headed by Jehangir Karamat. Spearhead analyses are the result of a collaborative effort and not attributable to a single individual.