Nukes and their security

Pakistan’s are safe

Pakistan is one of seven declared nuclear weapons states. It did not acquire this capability for international status, prestige or belligerent designs. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme is India-focused; meant for securing itself against a bigger military adversary. Had India not exploded nuclear devices on May 11 and 13, 1998, Pakistan would not have gone for nuclear explosions two weeks later. It would have preferred to continue with the policy of nuclear ambiguity: no nuclear weapons despite having the capability to make them.

The induction of nuclear weapons in South Asia in May 1998 following the initiative of India enabled Pakistan to neutralise India’s superiority in conventional weapons to a great extent. Therefore, nuclear weapons are integral to Pakistan’s security system.

Nuclear weapons are not meant for use because they cause devastating havoc; there is no winner of a nuclear war. However, these are meant to deter the adversary from engaging in conventional military adventurism.

If nuclear weapons provide military security, these bestow a major responsibility on nuclear weapons states. These weapons have to be protected against two kinds of major threats. First, nuclear weapons face the threat of unauthorised and accidental use or their use due to misinformation or miscalculation. Second, nuclear weapons, fissile material and radioactive substance can be stolen from nuclear installations, storage and in transit from one place to another. Their security may also threatened by terrorist and extremist groups that may attack a nuclear installation or take control of nuclear weapons, fissile material or radioactive substance.

It may be difficult for terrorist groups to takeover nuclear weapons and they may not be able to make a nuclear bomb if they take control of fissile material. However, a terrorist attack on nuclear installation or if they take control of fissile or radioactive material, it gives them a psychological advantage. They can use the control of fissile or radioactive substances to blackmail the target state, attempt to move the nuclear materials out of that state to target others or make what is called the dirty bomb for use in urban centres.

The question of safety and security of nuclear weapons, fissile material and radioactive substance has always been a major concern of the international community. This issue attracted much attention after the break-up of the Soviet Union in December 1991 and emergence of independent republics in Central Asia. Some of these republics had Soviet nuclear installations and material. Their accounting and security became a major concern of Russia and major western countries. There were reports of instances of smuggling of radioactive material from Russia and Central Asia. Another concern pertained to those nuclear scientists that lost their jobs due to disintegration of the Soviet Union.

The concern about safety and security of nuclear material acquired much salience after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, especially when, in October 2001, Osama bin Laden expressed strong interest in nuclear weapons in an interview with a Pakistani journalist.

The most commonly expressed fear is that extremist and terrorist groups may acquire ex-Soviet material. Pakistan faced a massive propaganda campaign with reference to the alleged vulnerability of its nuclear installations and material to extremist access or attack because extremist Islamic groups were located in Afghanistan and Pakistan. There was some propaganda against Pakistan with reference to Dr A Q Khan’s personal efforts to supply nuclear technology through an underground network in the pre-2001 period.

Nuclear security threats can be addressed by a host of measures that include an effective command and control, personnel reliability programme, technical and professional know-how and skills and human and technological security arrangements. The international community adopted cooperative measures and resource mobilisation to cope with these challenges.

Pakistan has given the highest importance to safety and security of nuclear material of all kinds and nuclear installations by setting up an effective Command and Control System in 2000. With an effective National Command Authority (NCA) and Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) and updating of technological and professional control with the help of friendly countries, Pakistan has a reliable nuclear security system. During the last couple of years, Pakistan has also introduced legislation and administrative measures to control export of nuclear related material.

A study of terrorist threats to nuclear material and installations in India and Pakistan undertaken in the U.S. in 2002 (Published in February 2003) concluded that there was minimal, if any, threat of a successful terrorist attack on nuclear installations or these groups taking over nuclear installation or material.

Since April 2010, the international community is giving greater attention to safety and security of nuclear materials. On the US initiative, first global nuclear security summit was held in Washington DC in April 2010. The second global nuclear security summit was held in Seoul, South Korea on March 26-27, 2012.

In both summit conferences, Pakistan was represented by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. The most noteworthy feature of the Seoul Summit was that no chief delegate targeted Pakistan for criticism on nuclear related issues. Rather, there was much appreciation of Pakistan’s effort to work with the international community for securing nuclear material and installations against terrorist threat or unauthorised use.

While highlighting the need of strengthening the IAEA for ensuring nuclear safety and security against the backdrop of the Fukushima reactors incident (2011), Pakistan emphasised the need of each country’s sovereign decision to adopt specific measures for safety and security.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, highlighted the steps taken by Pakistan for securing its nuclear materials and installations. He informed the Summit Conference that Pakistan would soon be installing nuclear detectors, called Special Nuclear Material Portals, on its international border points of entry and exit to detect movement of radioactive material. He declared that “nuclear materials must never fall into the hands of terrorists.”

The PM informed that conference that Pakistan carried out “comprehensive stress tests” of its nuclear power plants after the Fukushima reactor accident. It may be mentioned here that Pakistan has established a Centre of Excellence for conducting special courses on nuclear security, physical protection and personal reliability and related matters. This training will soon be open non-Pakistanis.

Pakistan recognises that, in addition to technological updating of the nuclear programme along with it delivery system, nuclear deterrence cannot be effective without a strong command and control and institution of security and safety measures for nuclear materials and control of their export and import.

The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.