Islamabad’s newfound interest in Moscow (read Gazprom) despite US pressure against the Iran pipeline deal, and Russia’s continued interest in financing the pipeline even though Washington’s pressure disengaged the Chinese consortium means the project is definitely on. And if it upsets the US, then so be it. So much has clearly been decided in all capitals central to the deal. That Putin’s boys went so far as to include tapi in the potential to-do list betrays their overwhelming interest in committing long-term to this region, especially since clumsy US policy is leaving wide vaccums for Gazprom and the like to fill, and quite profitably at that.
The Russian entry will sit pretty well with Iran as well, seeing their long history of doing business with the Russians, not that the Chinese have been lesser friends. Both Moscow and Beijing have been crucial in controlling international pressure on Iran’s nuclear program, not to mention shielding its most important strategic ally in the region – Syria – from relentless pressure for regime change. However, this means that Pakistan’s yes with Russia will also alter regional politics, and to no small extent.
And this brings us to Gazprom’s politics. Its leverage and outreach make political connotations inevitable. Its executives touch the pinnacles of power, right at the central crossroads of high-level energy and strategic politics. It is little surprise that its last CEO graduated to president of Russia for the four years just past. Its depth of penetration, reaching the heart of Europe, has caused numerous extremely serious political setbacks with much of the continent. Partnering with a beast like Gazprom will require prudence Pakistan has had little experience with, especially of late. Yet it is crucial. At best what follows will be an ideal marriage of convenience. And at worst, a falling out that will leave Islamabad, Tehran and Moscow all worse off. For now though, most important roads lead to Russia.
