Shifting sands

Pakistani politics redefines chaos theory

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s fate hangs in the balance for adamantly refusing to write a letter to the Swiss authorities to reopen corruption cases against the president. However, at the altar of public opinion, he is a sitting duck. It is already taken for granted that the Supreme Court bench hearing the contempt case will convict him.

Gilani’s counsel Aitzaz Ahsan by raising the prejudice issue and demanding a new bench to hear the case has added another layer of complexity to the matter. However, the judges who have of late developed a penchant for making headlines and ‘breaking news’ for the print and electronic media rather than merely dispensing justice have clarified that it is wrong to say that they have decided to punish his client.

Notwithstanding the effusive praise that President Zardari showered upon his prime minister in his recent address to the joint sitting of the parliament, the rump of his party is looking beyond him. The king is dead; long live the king.

Since PM Gilani has made it amply clear that he will not write against his own president, there are several candidates in the party ready to replace him in case of his disqualification. Whatever fate awaits him, the prime minister has decided to become a martyr or a hero. Privately, he has been quoted saying that, if asked to by the apex court, would Shahbaz Sharif write a letter against his own brother?

Perhaps the PPP has made a cynical calculation that playing the victim card in an election year is not such a bad idea. In any case, despite having transferred most functions to the prime minister under the constitution, the president still calls the shots. Everyone knows where the buck stops. Hence having a stopgap prime minister or prime ministers (as the case may be) in the interregnum before the elections does not seem a bad idea.

In the meanwhile, Gilani is giving prime ministerial looks more than ever before. He is presiding over more than a meeting a day on average. On the international front, he is off to Seoul to attend the Nuclear Safety Summit and is due to meet President Obama on the sidelines in the coming weeks. He is also scheduled to visit China and the UK.

Political parties in the coalition as well as in the opposition are least concerned with his fate. Both Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif have advised Gilani to comply with the orders of the apex court and write a letter to the Swiss authorities. After having being outwitted and outfoxed by Zardari, it is good politics for them if he is made to grovel in front of a Swiss magistrate.

Shahbaz Sharif’s frequent diatribes reserved for Zardari and somewhat milder criticism occasionally meted out by Nawaz Sharif in relatively civilised language belie the fact that Imran Khan’s perceived inroads in Punjab are haunting the Sharifs and they feel more threatened by his rise than by the PPP. In a recent television interview, Shahbaz Sharif refused to take a question about the PTI chief, arrogantly stating that it was below him to even mention his name.

Notwithstanding the posturing, the PML(N) is feeling the pinch. And the Sharifs are conscious of the PTI phenomenon. Why else would they cultivate the very constituency that they have ignored for years? Distribution of laptop computers to university and college students in the province is a blatant attempt to cultivate the educated youth at state expense.

The youth and women considered the bedrock of support for the Khan is being assiduously cultivated. Nawaz Sharif was made to address the Punjab university students on Republic Day while presiding over a laptop distribution ceremony. Both the brothers made highly charged political speeches on the occasion.

Similarly, International Women’s Day was celebrated with much fanfare by the Punjab government. The main function was presided over by the chief minister himself. Apart from lofty speeches, the audience was regaled with song and music. A crude attempt to ape the PTI.

Every political party has the right to promote its philosophy and cultivate its constituents including the PML(N). But in this case, the fine line between party and state has been conveniently ignored by those who claim to be the self-styled paragons of virtue.

On the eve of the retirement of director general ISI Lt-Gen Shuja Pasha, the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly Chaudhry Nisar Ahmed remarked that Imran Khan has lost his godfather. Whatever the truth behind the allegation that the PTI has been re-launched by the establishment, why should a party which has been in power five times in the past two and half decades feel so threatened and insecure by it?

Imran, apart from cultivating the young voter and the middle classes, has politically posited himself right-off-centre. Although the PTI has yet to spell out what it really stands for, Imran’s mushy stance on the Taliban and the US is closer to that of the PML(N).

Conventional wisdom being spread by the commentariat is that Imran’s self-proclaimed tsunami is already faltering. But if one doesn’t know what Imran stands for, one does know what the PTI unequivocally opposes. It considers both the PML(N) and the PPP as corrupt and inept and postures itself as the sole agent of change.

Imran Khan also confidently proclaims that he will sweep the next elections. How will he achieve this is not yet clear. Resentment amongst the idealist old guard of his party and the new entrants was but natural. And Imran has not been able to stem the infighting amongst the multifarious and heterogeneous motley crowd of new entrants.

Ideologically, what the PTI stands for is yet not clear. It is easy to claim that the economy will be fixed and corruption will be eliminated in the first 100 days of Imran’s government if and when it is formed. But it will be difficult to walk the talk without a clear road map.

In light of this, should the PML(N) feel so insecure? The answer is yes and no. The PTI would certainly cut into its vote bank and, to a lesser extent, into that of the PPP. But in Punjab, the PML(N) will feel the pinch more than the other parties. The PTI is emerging strong in KP. There, the PTI will damage both the ANP and the JUI(F) and pockets of PML support.

Perhaps, Imran Khan has emerged as a third force. An agent of change? Not yet!

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today