Politics amidst uncertainties

Chaos theory aka Pakistani politics

The elected governments at the federal and provincial levels are about to complete their fourth year in office and enter the fifth and the final year of the elected term. Amongst these governments, the survival of the PPP-led federal coalition government is a remarkable achievement against the backdrop periodic rumours about its political demise.

It was soon after the exit of the PML(N) from the federal coalition in August 2008 that rumours began to float from time to time about the collapse of the federal government or that the military or the superior judiciary or both would knock it out. Twice the MQM played its usual game of withholding support to the federal government, creating doubts about its survival.

At times, the opposition onslaught focused on President Asif Ali Zardari for getting him removed, if not Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. Zardari remained a soft target for corruption charges. The opposition leaders continue to entertain the hope that the superior judiciary will adopt some punitive measures against Zardari that will make it impossible for him to hold on to presidency. The contempt of court case is still going on against the prime minister.

Amidst all this confusion and uncertainty, Zardari and Gilani, especially the former, have worked quietly and diligently to build and sustain political partnerships. Zardari’s opponents have strong negative views about him but the “devil” has to be given credit for his quiet political diplomacy that has produced the longest surviving coalition at the federal level. His political skills and a down-to-earth political management have kept the MQM in the coalition along with the ANP. The major coalitional success is the winning over of the PML(Q) led by Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain that strengthened the coalition and partly reduced dependence of the coalition on the MQM.

Prime Minister Gilani’s political soft-paddling protected the political boat of the federal government from being rocked by occasional strong opposition waves in the political ocean. His ability to talk to different leaders and appease them has reinforced Zardari’s political initiative.

Zardari’s political manoeuvring has virtually isolated the PML(N) that has no working arrangement with any political party with the exception of some alienated parliamentarians from the PML(Q), often known as the Likeminded group. However, even this relationship is not firmly established because the Likeminded leaders are playing as hard-bargainers in order to obtain greater political dividends. Their demands have to be balanced with the imperatives of the PML(N)’s own top leadership.

The PML(N) will have to address two linked issues as the country moves towards the general elections. How to overcome its political isolation by building partnership with other parties? How to build election-winning support base in other provinces? The PML(N) has a poor or non-existent standing in Sindh. In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, it has faced political setback due to the rise of the Hazara-province movement. In Balochistan, all political parties are weak. Only personalities and tribal chiefs matter and PPP and PML(N) would compete for winning their support. The PPP stands marginally better prospects for cultivating political support.

Two other developments are going to impact the political scene in the future. These will have greater negative impact on the PML(N) than on the PPP. The rise of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) has built pressure on both the PPP and the PML(N). The alienated leaders of both parties have hopped on the PTI bandwagon. However, the Sharif domain is more adversely affected by Imran Khan’s Islamist, rightist, anti-America and pro-Taliban rhetoric because it overlaps with the PML(N) policy stance.

The Sunni-Tehrik and its affiliated Barelvi religious groups are talking about entering the electoral fray. They have some support in Karachi and the Punjab. The Barelvi brigade has resorted to mobilisation on purely religious issues that overlap mainly with the PML(N) and the Jamaat-e-Islami.

The old and new Islamic parties are not expected to perform well in the elections for a host of reasons that are beyond the scope of this article. However, these parties can divide the votes in number constituencies in the Punjab where the PPP and the PML(N) are evenly balanced.

To the good luck of the two major political parties, especially the PML(N), the PTI has been unable to sustain its upswing. With the gate-crashing by the activists from other political parties, the PTI now looks like any other Pakistani political party. It is strong in rhetoric and criticism of the PPP and the PML(N) but does not offer a credible alternate plan of action for making up the governance and management failures by the PPP and the PML(N) governments.

Political uncertainties are being caused by coalition politics because such arrangements make decision-making slow and, at times, politics rather than professionalism, shapes the policies. After all, all coalition partners have to be kept happy.

Uncertainties are going to persist because the military continues to be a powerful political player and flexes its muscles that cause problems for the federal government. Had the circumstantial factors been helpful, the military would have either taken over or displaced the current political governments at the federal and provincial levels.

Another pressure comes from the superior judiciary. A good amount of federal government’s energy is spent on responding to the issues raised by the judiciary. It seems that the judiciary has taken upon itself the task of rectifying all ills of the Pakistani state and society though its judgments. The elected leaders find themselves under pressure from two non-elected state institutions: the military and the superior judiciary. This increases institutional imbalance and accentuates the crisis of confidence for civilian institutions.

Zardari is expected to pull through to the next general elections through his political management but there is no hope of any improvement in governance or an end to political uncertainties. Political survival will continue to be the key consideration for the federal government and provincial governments.

The writer is an independent political and defence analyst.