In this age of scarcity, expect many paradigms to change. Some states are going to forget past disputes, others are going to find new ones. The material dialectic is going to rip through nation-states’ foreign policies and hang them out to dry. Expect the India-Pakistan animosity to continue. But the centrality of the Kashmir dispute, specially as an issue of self-determination or being the jewel of secular India (depending on where you look at it from) is going to be mentioned only as a rhetorical remembrance of simpler – yes, simpler – times. The new rivalry is going to be about water. It is going to be spread out on a larger canvas between these two states and Kashmir itself will be important only because of the water not because of some principled stance. Sad, but true.
Expect the same to happen to the allied (to water) issue of food. The age of cheap food is over. Whereas this has hit the urban salaried classes of both India and Pakistan, the agricultural peripheries haven’t done too badly. Thrived, in a number of areas. But the scarcity of food is going to change a lot of prisms. Don’t expect the Afghans to be churlish with Pakistan. Or at least don’t expect them to be churlish with both Iran and Pakistan. A possible Taliban government in Afghanistan is going to have to take its pick.
It is in this light that Pakistan is seeking a waiver of possible UNSC gas pipeline sanctions on Iran. Well, that won’t cut it with Pakistan. On the larger, more important issue of western military engagement with Iran, President Zardari has assured to the Iranian government that in no way will Pakistan be complicit. A wise move, not only as far as the principal is concerned but also in terms of the realpolitik. In this very same spirit, we could assert not only our sovereignty but also protect the economic interests of our polity by refusing to enter into energy deals with Iran. The recent statement by a high-ranking US diplomat in Pakistan about how the country should develop alternate sources of energy was absolutely uncalled for.
